One of the most well-worn examples in introductions to Bayesian reasoning is testing for rare diseases: if the prior probability that a patient has a disease is sufficiently low, the probability that the patient has the disease conditional on a positive diagnostic test result may also be low, even for very accurate tests. One might hope that every epidemiologist would be familiar with this textbook problem, but

## Sick of Textbook Errors

## Sick of Textbook Errors

## Sick of Textbook Errors

One of the most well-worn examples in introductions to Bayesian reasoning is testing for rare diseases: if the prior probability that a patient has a disease is sufficiently low, the probability that the patient has the disease conditional on a positive diagnostic test result may also be low, even for very accurate tests. One might hope that every epidemiologist would be familiar with this textbook problem, but

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