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RobinHanson's avatar

Update: we found an error, and after fixing they are now all monotonic in power. :)

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RobinHanson's avatar

"Showing up" means you start out as primitive.

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Thanks for the change Robin.

Were a large number of similair graphs not monotonic with power? Or other unexpected results? I want to know if there are major limitations with the intuitive way to guess the distribution of alien civiliastions based off n, or if this is just an unusual case.

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RobinHanson's avatar

Was it published anywhere else?

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Keith Wiley's avatar

Yep. Seems to pretty much reflect my own views on the topic, as per my 2011 paper:

The Fermi Paradox, Self-Replicating Probes, and the Interstellar Transportation Bandwidthhttps://arxiv.org/abs/1111....

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RobinHanson's avatar

We don't know why the answerthere is not monotonic with power.

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Sorry, I meant graph 3.

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Minor quibble: could you post the results of the polls alongside the questions, like you usually do?

Also, I am really confused by graph 2. Why are the least/most hard steps models both to the left of all the other distributions?

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RobinHanson's avatar

But I didn't assume that the non-grabby can't be seen.

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Peter Gerdes's avatar

Aren't you making an assumption that there aren't lots of non-grabby species that go to substantial efforts to communicate or make their presence known?

It's not at all obvious to me that you couldn't make your existence detectable over huge volumes (not just long times as you consider) without being grabby.

But, I'll admit this is mostly just a quibble since it does seem relatively unlikely.

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