If one takes the hard steps model of evolution seriously, humans seem to be early in the history of the universe. We can explain this by postulating that grabby aliens set an early deadline; humans couldn’t show up after aliens had filled the universe. As our grabby aliens model has three free parameters, each of which can be estimated from data, we are forced to conclude that such aliens are quite rare; if we are lucky enough to survive that long we should meet them in roughly a billion years.
Were a large number of similair graphs not monotonic with power? Or other unexpected results? I want to know if there are major limitations with the intuitive way to guess the distribution of alien civiliastions based off n, or if this is just an unusual case.
Aren't you making an assumption that there aren't lots of non-grabby species that go to substantial efforts to communicate or make their presence known?
It's not at all obvious to me that you couldn't make your existence detectable over huge volumes (not just long times as you consider) without being grabby.
But, I'll admit this is mostly just a quibble since it does seem relatively unlikely.
Update: we found an error, and after fixing they are now all monotonic in power. :)
"Showing up" means you start out as primitive.
Thanks for the change Robin.
Were a large number of similair graphs not monotonic with power? Or other unexpected results? I want to know if there are major limitations with the intuitive way to guess the distribution of alien civiliastions based off n, or if this is just an unusual case.
Was it published anywhere else?
Yep. Seems to pretty much reflect my own views on the topic, as per my 2011 paper:
The Fermi Paradox, Self-Replicating Probes, and the Interstellar Transportation Bandwidthhttps://arxiv.org/abs/1111....
We don't know why the answerthere is not monotonic with power.
Sorry, I meant graph 3.
Minor quibble: could you post the results of the polls alongside the questions, like you usually do?
Also, I am really confused by graph 2. Why are the least/most hard steps models both to the left of all the other distributions?
But I didn't assume that the non-grabby can't be seen.
Aren't you making an assumption that there aren't lots of non-grabby species that go to substantial efforts to communicate or make their presence known?
It's not at all obvious to me that you couldn't make your existence detectable over huge volumes (not just long times as you consider) without being grabby.
But, I'll admit this is mostly just a quibble since it does seem relatively unlikely.