Prediction markets let people bet on events of interest. This aggregates info on those events into market prices. So if you want to know the chance of an event, consider sponsoring a prediction market on it, and then watching the price. And if you want to persuade observers of a chance, consider betting in such a market, to change the price.
There is incentive: we track your score and keep a leaderboard. That's enough for a lot of people. And just making bad predictions will run you out of points.
Ok, but then don't call it a prediction market, call it a prediction aggregator.
Anyway, it seems to me that your system could yield better performances if you just asked people to volunteer their time rather than reward activity. The way you are doing it now rewards people for making random predictions, IIUC.
If you tried to go public as a sports bookie, doing all the usual things that sports bookies do, except using your new terminology, you'd still be arrested as violating anti-gambling laws.
Our project has a government funder, who seems themselves as developing methods to be used within the government. They've decided that since government workers are not paid for performance, neither should our participants be paid for performance.
Would it really be so hard to rename the thing? Call it a Prediction Credit Exchange. People deserve credit for making correct predictions. Everyone knows that.
The Soviet Union could swallow market-based reforms when they were called "new efficiency mechanisms". Isn't it just possible that ordinary people will be receptive to the idea that A Bet Is A Tax On Bullshit than to something that sounds like Hedge Fund Truth?
Considering all the good to be done, isn't it worth tuning up your rhetoric just a little?
Unfortunately the official market is US only this year. But if you're keen to try, we could use beta testers for the development site. We also really encourage US Citizens living outside the US to join.
There's a lot to dislike in the new system.
There is incentive: we track your score and keep a leaderboard. That's enough for a lot of people.
It would be enough if you weren't rewarding mere activity with real money.
And just making bad predictions will run you out of points.
How difficult it is to create multiple accounts, or to delete and recreate them?
Anyway, users could just play safe and bet on easy question, avoiding the hard ones, since there is no incentive to beat the 'market'.
Hm. Don't like the way it inserts my reply above previous replies. Sorry.
There is incentive: we track your score and keep a leaderboard. That's enough for a lot of people. And just making bad predictions will run you out of points.
Ok, but then don't call it a prediction market, call it a prediction aggregator.
Anyway, it seems to me that your system could yield better performances if you just asked people to volunteer their time rather than reward activity. The way you are doing it now rewards people for making random predictions, IIUC.
If you tried to go public as a sports bookie, doing all the usual things that sports bookies do, except using your new terminology, you'd still be arrested as violating anti-gambling laws.
Our project has a government funder, who seems themselves as developing methods to be used within the government. They've decided that since government workers are not paid for performance, neither should our participants be paid for performance.
There is still the joy of picking winners
I don't get it. If you reward activity instead of accuracy, there is no incentive to make accurate predictions.
I can’t do much about that.
Would it really be so hard to rename the thing? Call it a Prediction Credit Exchange. People deserve credit for making correct predictions. Everyone knows that.
The Soviet Union could swallow market-based reforms when they were called "new efficiency mechanisms". Isn't it just possible that ordinary people will be receptive to the idea that A Bet Is A Tax On Bullshit than to something that sounds like Hedge Fund Truth?
Considering all the good to be done, isn't it worth tuning up your rhetoric just a little?
Unfortunately the official market is US only this year. But if you're keen to try, we could use beta testers for the development site. We also really encourage US Citizens living outside the US to join.
It says: "You must be 18 years or older and an U.S. citizen to participate in the DAGGRE Project."
Is DAGGRE US-only? /register/ form, weirdly, asks both for "Country or Citizenship" and requires me to be US citizen.