Thanks to Robin for posting a mini-review of Predictocracy. We’ve promised to debate the relative merits of a “futarchy” and a “predictocracy” later. I’ll use this opportunity to respond briefly to his criticism (while gratefully accepting his praise). I agree that it’s best when technical designs for prediction markets can be supported by mathematical models or empirical evidence. At the same time, I didn’t want to scare away readers by including math. Meanwhile, I agree that field experiments can be helpful, and I am developing a web site that will test some of the ideas of the book (subject, of course and unfortunately, to legal restrictions). While recognizing the contributions of experimental economics, I doubt that laboratory experiments will be of much use in persuading skeptics that prediction markets can be useful in real-world institutions.
Predictocracy — A Preliminary Response
Predictocracy — A Preliminary Response
Predictocracy — A Preliminary Response
Thanks to Robin for posting a mini-review of Predictocracy. We’ve promised to debate the relative merits of a “futarchy” and a “predictocracy” later. I’ll use this opportunity to respond briefly to his criticism (while gratefully accepting his praise). I agree that it’s best when technical designs for prediction markets can be supported by mathematical models or empirical evidence. At the same time, I didn’t want to scare away readers by including math. Meanwhile, I agree that field experiments can be helpful, and I am developing a web site that will test some of the ideas of the book (subject, of course and unfortunately, to legal restrictions). While recognizing the contributions of experimental economics, I doubt that laboratory experiments will be of much use in persuading skeptics that prediction markets can be useful in real-world institutions.
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