Can we assume that the concomitant rise of predication markets and AI/LLM analysis will result in prediction markets primarily being dominated by the model developers themselves or just the side of the market working to write the best poetry to extract the more accurate predictions using the same models?
As a source of information to advise decision-makers, prediction markets have a new competitor: AI. It's plausible that in the next decade or two, machine learning models will become better than prediction markets at predicting elections and sports games and so on. The ML models will also be cheaper, a few seconds of GPU time vs thousands of humans betting. Though it will then be a while after that before the ML models are trusted as much as the humans.
If AI is the best way to answer a question, then you can make money by betting on the AI's answer to a prediction market. And thus the price will correct. Still canonical
Can we assume that the concomitant rise of predication markets and AI/LLM analysis will result in prediction markets primarily being dominated by the model developers themselves or just the side of the market working to write the best poetry to extract the more accurate predictions using the same models?
As a source of information to advise decision-makers, prediction markets have a new competitor: AI. It's plausible that in the next decade or two, machine learning models will become better than prediction markets at predicting elections and sports games and so on. The ML models will also be cheaper, a few seconds of GPU time vs thousands of humans betting. Though it will then be a while after that before the ML models are trusted as much as the humans.
Different AIs give different answers, just as with humans. These markets are forums for settling those differences.
If AI is the best way to answer a question, then you can make money by betting on the AI's answer to a prediction market. And thus the price will correct. Still canonical
Sure, but if AI is the best way to answer a question you might do away with the expense of the market entirely.