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Tim Tyler's avatar

Machine intelligence ought to be good at "collecting and aggregating info". Machines can act as participants in markets as well, of course, but let's not forget that we can upgrade the brains of our traders.

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Kenny Evitt's avatar

I would think you could persuade someone to donate/grant/give you specifically at least $1M.

Maybe one way to start would be to build a new organization (e.g. 'for-profit' firm or regular U.S. corporation) with basically no particular structure or purpose other than to test an (internal) prediction market. After typing that out, it still seems too vague, but my intuition is that somehow you'd want to avoid 'managers' with (reasonable) reasons to NOT want to be subject to the 'cruel' criticism of prediction markets.

I would think you'd also have some good candidate ideas for suitable organizations. Maybe an investment firm? Or something else that could be potentially organized around an internal prediction market from the beginning?

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RobinHanson's avatar

Not all spending is spending money.

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Dave Lindbergh's avatar

"nor can these experiments be enabled merely with money" and "most socially valuable way to spend" seem in conflict.

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Do you have any links describing in more detail the "dozens of efforts to use prediction markets to advise decisions inside ordinary firms" where "users are satisfied"?

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TGGP's avatar

Surprised you didn't link to this:

https://www.overcomingbias....

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RobinHanson's avatar

Note the "<". An intuitive rough estimate.

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

How did you come up with the ~$1M quote?

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