To act more on far ideals, predict what you will do: Asking participants to predict their future vaccination behavior … substantially increased vaccination rates among patients with high short-term vaccination barriers (who, in the absence of this intervention, have low vaccination acceptance rates). These findings are consistent with past research on temporal construal, which suggests that people asked to think about a future behavior tend to focus its abstract benefits, and disregard concrete barriers that might impede it. (
You can use stickk.com as a proxy for such a market. You have options such as sending money to a friend if you do not keep to your commitment, and you need only have an agreement that your friend pays you if you do keep your commitment. Of course, this is no longer anonymous, but it seems pretty tricky to have an anonymous market on your behavior in any event.
Do you think there's base enough to extrapolate this exact result (this works on vaccination programs) to other areas like adoption of innovative clean technologies?
When I was studying for qualification exams, I joked around with friends about setting up a prediction market to help us figure out how we should allocate our study time.
It would be difficult to establish a personal prediction market- most people don't have the resources? Maybe a collective Rationalist prediction market where we can bet on each other's behaviour?
Predicting yourself is dangerous because you find out how little direct control you have over your actions, as compared to how much you're 'supposed' to have or compared to the default self-assessment.
On the plus side having accurate self-predictions is the only way to gain indirect control.
I suspect this could be a great app for Google+
You can use stickk.com as a proxy for such a market. You have options such as sending money to a friend if you do not keep to your commitment, and you need only have an agreement that your friend pays you if you do keep your commitment. Of course, this is no longer anonymous, but it seems pretty tricky to have an anonymous market on your behavior in any event.
Do you think there's base enough to extrapolate this exact result (this works on vaccination programs) to other areas like adoption of innovative clean technologies?
When I was studying for qualification exams, I joked around with friends about setting up a prediction market to help us figure out how we should allocate our study time.
It would be difficult to establish a personal prediction market- most people don't have the resources? Maybe a collective Rationalist prediction market where we can bet on each other's behaviour?
Sounds like an interesting idea.
Predicting yourself is dangerous because you find out how little direct control you have over your actions, as compared to how much you're 'supposed' to have or compared to the default self-assessment.
On the plus side having accurate self-predictions is the only way to gain indirect control.
I blogged about and attempted microprizes a few years ago, in this vein. micromarkets seem worthy of experiment too.