Overcoming Bias

Share this post

Predict Yourself

www.overcomingbias.com

Discover more from Overcoming Bias

This is a blog on why we believe and do what we do, why we pretend otherwise, how we might do better, and what our descendants might do, if they don't all die.
Over 11,000 subscribers
Continue reading
Sign in

Predict Yourself

Robin Hanson
Sep 4, 2011
Share this post

Predict Yourself

www.overcomingbias.com
8
Share

To act more on far ideals, predict what you will do:

Asking participants to predict their future vaccination behavior … substantially increased vaccination rates among patients with high short-term vaccination barriers (who, in the absence of this intervention, have low vaccination acceptance rates). These findings are consistent with past research on temporal construal, which suggests that people asked to think about a future behavior tend to focus its abstract benefits, and disregard concrete barriers that might impede it. (more)

Consider personal prediction markets, which predict what you will do in the future, such as whether you will lose weight, get married, get an A, get promoted, etc. By allowing your associates to participate in such markets, you could let them (anonymously) tell you what they really think about what you will do. Looking often at the predictions of such markets, and asking yourself if those predictions are wrong, could help you to live up to your far ideals about what you should and will do with your life.

Share this post

Predict Yourself

www.overcomingbias.com
8
Share
8 Comments
Share this discussion

Predict Yourself

www.overcomingbias.com
Overcoming Bias Commenter
May 15

I suspect this could be a great app for Google+

Expand full comment
Reply
Share
Overcoming Bias Commenter
May 15

You can use stickk.com as a proxy for such a market. You have options such as sending money to a friend if you do not keep to your commitment, and you need only have an agreement that your friend pays you if you do keep your commitment. Of course, this is no longer anonymous, but it seems pretty tricky to have an anonymous market on your behavior in any event.

Expand full comment
Reply
Share
6 more comments...
Top
New
Community

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Robin Hanson
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing