Michael Gerson has doubts on doubt: Without a doubt, doubt is useful and needed at the margins of any ideology. The world is too complex to know completely. Many of our judgments are, by nature, provisional. Those who are immune to evidence, who claim infallibility on debatable matters, are known as bores – or maybe columnists.
I think the fundamental premise of this argument is a shortcut, a simplification of a more subtle argument. A simplification that is often purposefully hijacked.
We should work on issues where our marginal efforts are likely to produce marginal benefits that exceed those marginal efforts.
Our degree of passion should depend on how much the likely benefits exceed those efforts and is a signal to others that they should work on these same things. The problem is that using someone else's passion as input to your own utility function can be detrimental unless the two utility functions are linked via a positive sum interaction (where increase in one utility function results in an increase in the other utility function). If the utility functions are coupled in a zero-sum interaction (or even worse a negative sum interaction), then one should do the opposite and work against what ever others work passionately on.
For example, enslaving someone would achieve substantial benefits to the owner because the value generated by the slave would accrue to the owner. But the passion with which an individual seeks to acquire slaves is a poor indicator as to whether one should assist in that effort. The critical factor is who becomes a slave and who becomes the owner. Future owners should work passionately to institute slavery, future slaves should work passionately to prevent slavery.
A more realistic example is in tax policy. People and corporations should work passionately on reducing their own taxes and passionately on increasing the taxes of everyone else. The current political atmosphere is doing exactly that. Taxes are being decreased on present tax payers and increased on future tax payers by funding government expenditures through debt which will be paid (with interest) by future tax payers. Politicians supporting such tax cuts are benefiting because their utility function is increased by campaign contributions from donors who benefit from the present tax cuts.
"Ask yourself this simple question: how confident would you need to be on a moral or political conclusion in order to work passionately for it? 99%? 90%? 75%?"
I realise this may only be a figure of speech, but I think it's a mistake to attach numerical confidence levels to many beliefs, particularly moral ones.
For instance I may hold a belief that if the laws of physics are such and such, and that evolution shows such and such, then there is no God. This is an axiomatic argument. You either accept the premises and the conclusion follows or you reject it. It's not probabilistic.
This isn't a call for absolutism. We could have an incorrect model of the world, but we can't attach probabilities as to its being wrong.
I suppose my point is that you can be skeptical about your model being absolutely correct, while being passionate about its implications.
Over the course of the past few hundred years, the body count (and the overall toll in human suffering) for "passion" (over-certainty) appears to be much higher than that for "doubt." Over-certain people are more visible in history, but they do much more damage.
In political action, where costs and risks are spread across diffuse groups (who have no direct say in the choice of action) we need a lot more doubt. In private action, where costs and risks are born only by the choosing individual(s) we need a lot more passion.
Private passion = couragePolitical/Public passion = cowardice and oppression
But it would of course be even better if you could see the nobility and glory in doing your best as a limited but well-meaning creature. You shouldn’t need to be absolutely sure of a conclusion to work sincerely and passionately for it.
Who's it better for? What does this illusion contribute to fitness?
Perhaps passionate fighting for a cause is motivated not by conviction about truth but a deep fear that "it may affect me too", or that "a society that does not respect such and such cause may make my life miserable in related ways too". For instance most people are confident that prison rape is a serious issue, and are opposed to it, but since very few see this as happening to them there is hardly any serious activism on this front. When it comes to such deep fears even 30% certainty can goad someone into preventive measures.
I think the fundamental premise of this argument is a shortcut, a simplification of a more subtle argument. A simplification that is often purposefully hijacked.
We should work on issues where our marginal efforts are likely to produce marginal benefits that exceed those marginal efforts.
Our degree of passion should depend on how much the likely benefits exceed those efforts and is a signal to others that they should work on these same things. The problem is that using someone else's passion as input to your own utility function can be detrimental unless the two utility functions are linked via a positive sum interaction (where increase in one utility function results in an increase in the other utility function). If the utility functions are coupled in a zero-sum interaction (or even worse a negative sum interaction), then one should do the opposite and work against what ever others work passionately on.
For example, enslaving someone would achieve substantial benefits to the owner because the value generated by the slave would accrue to the owner. But the passion with which an individual seeks to acquire slaves is a poor indicator as to whether one should assist in that effort. The critical factor is who becomes a slave and who becomes the owner. Future owners should work passionately to institute slavery, future slaves should work passionately to prevent slavery.
A more realistic example is in tax policy. People and corporations should work passionately on reducing their own taxes and passionately on increasing the taxes of everyone else. The current political atmosphere is doing exactly that. Taxes are being decreased on present tax payers and increased on future tax payers by funding government expenditures through debt which will be paid (with interest) by future tax payers. Politicians supporting such tax cuts are benefiting because their utility function is increased by campaign contributions from donors who benefit from the present tax cuts.
"Ask yourself this simple question: how confident would you need to be on a moral or political conclusion in order to work passionately for it? 99%? 90%? 75%?"
I realise this may only be a figure of speech, but I think it's a mistake to attach numerical confidence levels to many beliefs, particularly moral ones.
For instance I may hold a belief that if the laws of physics are such and such, and that evolution shows such and such, then there is no God. This is an axiomatic argument. You either accept the premises and the conclusion follows or you reject it. It's not probabilistic.
This isn't a call for absolutism. We could have an incorrect model of the world, but we can't attach probabilities as to its being wrong.
I suppose my point is that you can be skeptical about your model being absolutely correct, while being passionate about its implications.
Over the course of the past few hundred years, the body count (and the overall toll in human suffering) for "passion" (over-certainty) appears to be much higher than that for "doubt." Over-certain people are more visible in history, but they do much more damage.
Diana Mutz has some relevant research.
In political action, where costs and risks are spread across diffuse groups (who have no direct say in the choice of action) we need a lot more doubt. In private action, where costs and risks are born only by the choosing individual(s) we need a lot more passion.
Private passion = couragePolitical/Public passion = cowardice and oppression
You shouldn’t need to be absolutely sure of a conclusion to work sincerely and passionately for it.
An immediate consequence of expected utility maximization, of course.
(In fact, you need not even believe a conclusion with particularly high confidence at all....)
Hume was right. But most people reject his ideas for these kind of practical reasons.
At some point you just need to suspend your disbelief and get on with life. For one thing, no one would take you to the movies if you couldn't.
But it would of course be even better if you could see the nobility and glory in doing your best as a limited but well-meaning creature. You shouldn’t need to be absolutely sure of a conclusion to work sincerely and passionately for it.
Who's it better for? What does this illusion contribute to fitness?
Perhaps passionate fighting for a cause is motivated not by conviction about truth but a deep fear that "it may affect me too", or that "a society that does not respect such and such cause may make my life miserable in related ways too". For instance most people are confident that prison rape is a serious issue, and are opposed to it, but since very few see this as happening to them there is hardly any serious activism on this front. When it comes to such deep fears even 30% certainty can goad someone into preventive measures.