26 Comments

This was a bad change. The only thing Substack is good at is getting people to pay money; a killer feature if you need it like Scott, but you don't, presumably, intend to paywall OB. Otherwise, Substack is terrible blogging software: it struggles to do something as simple as super/subscript! (I think they might *just* have implemented that, 6 years and 100 employees later.) It also has nasty design: subscribe nagware all over the page, that horrible fullscreen ad that pops up after a little while, remarkably intense web browser load, aggressive collapsing of comment subthreads... You've broken a ton of OB functionality: the tags are all gone, browsing by month/year, the per-author post lists, the comment sidebar, and I've probably forgotten some other things inasmuch as there's no way to check now that the site is gone.

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I imagine that higher readership might be a main benefit? Many people in Robin's target group might use the Substack app on their phones, Substack might provide very powerful SEO and effective blog recommendations, more money might still help Robin somewhat on the margins.

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I wasn't able to get the blog sent to my email, which frustrated me. Also not able to read on phone. Those are two big reasons I didn't read more regularly. I think most of Hanson's devoted readers will continue to read, and he will also gain new readers. Presumably he can keep all of his content free if he wants? And the blogging software will likely be improved over time (whereas that was unlikely on the old site).

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There are innumerable RSS->email services/gateways and always have been (which is why most blogging software doesn't bother), so you couldn't've wanted it that badly. I don't remember it being broken on small screens (why would it be when it was rarely much more than some short text), but I'll admit I haven't checked.

> And the blogging software will likely be improved over time

I am skeptical that the Substack blogging software will see major improvements, when it is locked towards whatever conveniently fits inside the minute subset of email HTML, and has improved so minimally over the over half decade it has been in operation. Plus, consider that as a $0.6b startup with something like 100+ employees now, operating at a loss, and alternatives like Ghost easy to set up, Substack is going to have to monetize at some point. As Cory Doctorow puts it, services like Substack have an unfortunate tendency towards 'enshittification' once the VC taps turn off. (Personally, I'm glad all my content is off-site so as Substack someday goes the way of so many once-beloved services, it won't be any big deal for me.)

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Ha, I guess I didn't want it THAT badly to investigate further--I just assumed it was an archaic site and wasn't going to happen. Anyway, I still think this could be a net win for Robin (and truth!)

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Bryan Caplan and Richard Hanania have explained why they switched to substack

https://betonit.substack.com/p/who-should-switch-to-substack?s=w

https://richardhanania.substack.com/p/why-you-should-be-on-substack?s=r

"It is almost impossible to exaggerate how important convenient access now is for online products given the proliferation of news and entertainment options."

Like many, I'm a big fan of your writing Gwern. And it's great you have a site which has the exact esthetic design you want. But very few of your readers care about this. In fact I dislike your site because I can't get a (convenient) RSS feed and if I try to pinboard a post, your site prevents the popup from working. Your site is inconvenient! Which is fine since that's what you want your site to be. And in fact it's a positive feature if want to limit your reader growth. Which is fine. I'm happy to read great writing wherever it's posted. But assuming regular readers care about this is wrong. Most don't. In fact, most prefer substack (emails don't get blocked by spam detecter for example). Even if you don't use a paywall, I know Bryan Caplan has said he's gotten more readers and more engagement. And high quality at that, not garbage. I'm sure Bryan Caplan's recommendation based on actual success (more readers and engagement) was a factor in Robin's decision.

Convenience is a huge feature. Robin's old site did not have it. Substack does. And to be clear, I agree with most of your points about the bland substack design and layout issue. But I'm confident Robin's reader growth trajectory will be higher here than at his old site. If you want to bet on Robin's future substack readership metrics, I'm sure Bryan would be happy to take your money.

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> In fact I dislike your site because I can't get a (convenient) RSS feed

The newsletter has an RSS feed right there (as indeed, do all substacks, which is how I subscribe to substacks - no 'Substack app' required!): https://gwern.substack.com/feed

> and if I try to pinboard a post, your site prevents the popup from working.

Well, that I have no idea about. As far as I know, I do not set any of the HTTP header options which should break various kinds of popups (the way the majority of websites these days do). If you want to send me more details like browser/OS version, console output, and exact scenario, Said can look into it - I don't have a Pinboard account, but he still does.

However, since you say 'pinboard', I must note that a major reason I do not have a Pinboard account & Said has been exiting his is that Maciej is burned out and has basically abandoned Pinboard for half a decade now, doing the bare minimum to not actually get banned by credit card processors for fraud/refunds, and the site barely functions and routinely crashes or fails, often for really embarrassing reasons like 'forgot to renew the HTTPS certificate'. (See the innumerable HN complaint threads or replies to half his tweets.) You should be surprised that you can pinboard anything, given that the stack is a decade old at its youngest, and I strongly advise you to evaluate your current Pinboard backups & exit options before the site exports break again, each time perhaps permanently. Wouldn't be the first bookmarking website to crash and discover the backups were corrupt, 'sorry for your loss'.

> emails don't get blocked by spam detecter for example

Not even a problem for a RSS reader subscribing to the RSS feed for every substack.

> I know Bryan Caplan has said he's gotten more readers and more engagement.

Caplan has changed up his writing style and content substantially since moving off Econlog, so I don't find that very compelling.

Plus, if there are benefits to Substack's internal cross-recommendations, you can always cross-post, like Zvi does (and I do to a much lesser degree). There was no need to forcibly destroy the old site.

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Incidentally, a tip for uBlock users: you can set up rules which block the ever-escalating amount of Substack ads* and cruft like the popup walls across all of the Substack-using websites and subdomains by going into the preferences to write rules that apply globally; the Substack classes/IDs seem to be pretty unique, thank goodness. The eyedropper won't let you do global rules because it's always site-specific. To conveniently set up a full blacklist, you can eyedropper all of the ads on a single Substack site and then just edit out the site part.

* I mean holy shit - do my eyes deceive me or, since I left my first comment, has Substack started jamming in *another* ad at the top of pages now for their podcast app?

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I'm a week late to this because even though I hate push-blogging I've been drawn into substack enough that I got a notification when Caplan posted about overcomingbias. I agree with Gwern's point albeit in the way that someone who hates industrialization agrees with someone who hates cars (but loves trains). Letting everyone know there's a new post that they can stream into to comment the most obvious, boring, and obnoxious things possible as quickly as they can (sometimes without even reading the whole thing) is a great feature from the perspective of driving engagement, but is also part of why the internet became so full of trash after the invention of the smartphone. Previously, I would type "overcomingbias.com" into a browser window when I was properly in the mood to engage with Hanson's content, and would sometimes also search up Caplan to skim six or ten of his posts at a sitting. I use Twitter the same way -- if I'm actively seeking the kind of experience that reading Yudkowsky's twitter feed is going to provide, I go and get it. Letting people outside just fire their content (whether via list-serv, RSS, tweet, or substack app) is bad mental hygiene, and I think this last domino of Hanson going Substack is going to be the thing that causes me to figure out how to block all substack emails without 'unsubscribing' - since the execrable POS company gives authors the ability to make you subscribe in order to comment.

edit: apparently I wasn't 'signed in' when typing this so I had to ctrl-c my text and then find this comment again in order to post this after signing in. F*ck substack.

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I don't understand the design complaints. I think Substack looks great.

Anyway, Substack is like a social media for blogs. I like how it recommends blogs to follow and people can recommend them on their profiles.

Another alternative, Medium, has never got me coming back. It's also required to pay for a subscription now to use it much.

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Substacks get more views. Bryan Caplan regrets he didn't transition earlier (partly because of that). Michael Huemer also confirmed that he gets more views.

Also, as Max points out, there is an app. I don't use email for social media notifications. Why should I use it for blogs? It's the main reason I haven't read Robin Hanson for a long time. I don't want to check his site every day.

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There was already 'an app' for that. One which worked for more websites than just Substacks, and allowed for all sorts of other features Substack will never ever get around to bothering to include. It's called 'an RSS reader'.

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Yes, I never cared for RSS readers much. I tried them but was never impressed. With Substack, however, I have very little complaints. Only that searching for old posts reuploaded from other blogs on Google can be difficult.

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I don't mind getting the notifications to my email but I definitely prefer to have access to the blog on my phone. I tried to read a few posts on my phone in the past and went cross-eyed.

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I was not a regular reader of your blog, but your book and your conversations with Agnes Callard are why I immediately subscribed. I don't really care about exclusivity and would be happy if my payment signaled more mindsalmostmeeting.

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I think Arnold Kling has an interesting model. He hosts regular discussions with paying subscribers on Zoom, but all the written content remains free.

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This seems a good solution for popular blogs, as Robin’s will certainly be.

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Any news on the comments? I am interested in some ones from the AI Foom debate

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How about something on political bias? Tribalism is wrecking the country.

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I also want to express my love for Minds Almost Meeting. I can't wait for the next episode!

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But Substack doesn't look as good as your old website did. And it is probably slower too. And now I have to change my OB scraping script :(. On that note, I trained GPT-3 on some of your works. It is private right now. Do you want access to the model?

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Love your work. I understand most of it (OK - probably half of it). A topic i would encourage you to explore is coherence. I struggle to parse the general discourse. I concede that foundational differences often leave us on two sides of a deep ravine with no obvious bridges to use to cross (a la Sowell's Conflict of Visions) but i often find the arguments on any one side to be incoherent. For example a view that choosing your gender is ok but not your race. I freely accept that i am probably on the other side of the ravine on this particular view and no doubt suffer my own incoherent thoughts. Are there ways to build bridges ? Does it help (or hurt) to expose incoherence ? Is the incoherence a feature or a bug ?

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Is it really the case that what people want to pay for is access to additional content? First, my hypothesis is that the value of your posts is, in a large part, derived from being able to discuss them with others (so, the widest possible access is desirable), and, in general, from introducing those ideas to the world. Second, I would guess (at least from personal experience) that paying for a blog like yours stems from the wanting-to-associate-with-elites drive.

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I really miss the old comments so hope all goes well, as for paid content I think private discussions would probably be best.

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Most of the content on my Substack is free, but I have a handful of paying subscribers and at times I post something for paying subscribers only (with a 50% free preview). I set the full subscription fee at the minimum allowed ($5/month or $30/year), and I think there should be a cheaper option (say $10/year). However, your blog is popular so I’m sure you’ll have lots of paying subscribers if you find a good model. Perhaps 1 post in 3 for paying subscribers?

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Finally! You’re the last blog that I’ve wanted to move to Substack. Glad to have you here!

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