Many (Poincaré 1908, Schumpeter 1911, Ogburn 1922) have said that, as there are so many good ideas out there, most innovation is just simple combos of prior good ideas.
Your work does get a mention on that page - but IMO it doesn't give you very much credit.
The page even starts out with: "Prediction markets, also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures, or event derivatives". It claims that "prediction markets" and "decision markets" are synonyms.
I am sorry professor, but it was actually a terrible idea, because it would be a market that predicts its own result.
Imagine a market where there are two notes, A and B, and a gram of gold is paid to the winner, that is, the one that trades higher on a specific day. In that case, you have nothing but a bidding war.
The whole point of predicition markets is that they predict an external event, that which the market participants cannot manipulate.
How not? We are predicting whether Trump gonna attack Iran, and the actual decision to attack Iran is made by whichever prediction wins? So throwing money on either side is a weird combination of buying the decision and predicting whether that side will be better at buying the decision than the other. It has nothing to do with whether that attack is generally a good idea or not.
All info institutions that predict could succumb to self-fulfilling or defeating predictions. That's why you want to make predictions of outcomes conditional on actions. And decision markets are exactly that sort of prediction.
IMO decision markets are different than trad PMs in the sense that it's not a market predicting an outcome as much as it's predicting consequence. e.g. Trump will attack Iran VS Will Trumps attack on Iran improve regional stability?
Have existing prediction markets said that they won't allow markets of this type? Seems compatible with their model and washout rules, but I'm not an expert.
What are the trials we’ve seen recently that you mention?
I added links to the post there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_market
...redirects to:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market
Your work does get a mention on that page - but IMO it doesn't give you very much credit.
The page even starts out with: "Prediction markets, also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures, or event derivatives". It claims that "prediction markets" and "decision markets" are synonyms.
I am sorry professor, but it was actually a terrible idea, because it would be a market that predicts its own result.
Imagine a market where there are two notes, A and B, and a gram of gold is paid to the winner, that is, the one that trades higher on a specific day. In that case, you have nothing but a bidding war.
The whole point of predicition markets is that they predict an external event, that which the market participants cannot manipulate.
You are describing an auction. Prediction markets aren't the same as auctions.
How not? We are predicting whether Trump gonna attack Iran, and the actual decision to attack Iran is made by whichever prediction wins? So throwing money on either side is a weird combination of buying the decision and predicting whether that side will be better at buying the decision than the other. It has nothing to do with whether that attack is generally a good idea or not.
All info institutions that predict could succumb to self-fulfilling or defeating predictions. That's why you want to make predictions of outcomes conditional on actions. And decision markets are exactly that sort of prediction.
IMO decision markets are different than trad PMs in the sense that it's not a market predicting an outcome as much as it's predicting consequence. e.g. Trump will attack Iran VS Will Trumps attack on Iran improve regional stability?
Have existing prediction markets said that they won't allow markets of this type? Seems compatible with their model and washout rules, but I'm not an expert.
Manifold and Metaculus had conditionals in the last presidential election, but neither Kalshi nor Polymarket have implemented them.
But doesn't the polymarket '50-50' resolution or the manifold 'N/A' condition allow this? Like when a sports game is cancelled, they resolve to N/A.
That's not the same as being able to create a market using a condition that you specify.
Yeah, I see, thanks