This diagram was from from my talk last Thursday: The easy way to start a corporate prediction market is to grab some cheap software, fill in some easy topics, and then hope people will play in their free time for bragging rights. You might get lucky; offering only weak incentives might still provide key valuable information, and put you in the sunny upper left box of this diagram.
Tom, the lower right is just where the costs are high and the benefits low, so why bother.
I take it, Robin, that the "X" in the lower right-hand corner refers to legal limits on markets that offer strong incentives to nail (merely) fun claims, such as sports betting markets. Right?
Sorry, they haven't published anything linkable yet.
You got any links to there trials?