As there’s been an uptick of interest in prediction markets lately, in the next few posts I will give updated versions of some of my favorite prediction market project proposals.
(1) No need to have cliques of historians doing the ratings, I think... could just rely on column space devoted to them across a range of encyclopedias. (The approach used by Charles Murray in Human Accomplishment).
(2) Not really the same thing, as it attempts to ascertain the monetary value of a person's career in the present day, but crypto startup Talent Protocol (https://www.talentprotocol.... is working on something like this.
How much does this depend upon the people involved having at least some non-zero level of honorable/ethical standards? Too much, I suspect. A system that should function well, even if, say, 50%+ of all those notable authoritative historians to be involved were actually ruthless, utterly-corrupt scoundrels at heart, might be prudent.
(1) No need to have cliques of historians doing the ratings, I think... could just rely on column space devoted to them across a range of encyclopedias. (The approach used by Charles Murray in Human Accomplishment).
(2) Not really the same thing, as it attempts to ascertain the monetary value of a person's career in the present day, but crypto startup Talent Protocol (https://www.talentprotocol.... is working on something like this.
Bitter irony
The historical studies I suggest would tell us a lot about how vulnerable this approach is to such problems.
How much does this depend upon the people involved having at least some non-zero level of honorable/ethical standards? Too much, I suspect. A system that should function well, even if, say, 50%+ of all those notable authoritative historians to be involved were actually ruthless, utterly-corrupt scoundrels at heart, might be prudent.
Too bad this didn't exist -- I could have gotten very rich shorting myself