As there’s been an uptick of interest in prediction markets lately, in the next few posts I will give updated versions of some of my favorite prediction market project proposals. I don’t own these ideas, and I’d be happy for anyone to pursue any of them, with or without my help. And as my
(1) No need to have cliques of historians doing the ratings, I think... could just rely on column space devoted to them across a range of encyclopedias. (The approach used by Charles Murray in Human Accomplishment).
(2) Not really the same thing, as it attempts to ascertain the monetary value of a person's career in the present day, but crypto startup Talent Protocol (https://www.talentprotocol.... is working on something like this.
How much does this depend upon the people involved having at least some non-zero level of honorable/ethical standards? Too much, I suspect. A system that should function well, even if, say, 50%+ of all those notable authoritative historians to be involved were actually ruthless, utterly-corrupt scoundrels at heart, might be prudent.
(1) No need to have cliques of historians doing the ratings, I think... could just rely on column space devoted to them across a range of encyclopedias. (The approach used by Charles Murray in Human Accomplishment).
(2) Not really the same thing, as it attempts to ascertain the monetary value of a person's career in the present day, but crypto startup Talent Protocol (https://www.talentprotocol.... is working on something like this.
Bitter irony
The historical studies I suggest would tell us a lot about how vulnerable this approach is to such problems.
How much does this depend upon the people involved having at least some non-zero level of honorable/ethical standards? Too much, I suspect. A system that should function well, even if, say, 50%+ of all those notable authoritative historians to be involved were actually ruthless, utterly-corrupt scoundrels at heart, might be prudent.
Too bad this didn't exist -- I could have gotten very rich shorting myself