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Mar 12, 2023Liked by Robin Hanson

A dividing line that might be important is that many people that would thus be classified as magicians would prefer to be the priests of a larger society, whereas many magicians reject exotericism and prefer to keep their teachings secret. Depending on which one you yourself fall into, you might be a magician, or you might be a failed or upstart priest.

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I don't know about magician, but as a conspiracy theorist I am a type of seer.

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I don't know if this has any utility for your purposes, but there is another stop on the line from magician to priest or from priest to magician. The shaman. Either a magician with a following, or a priest who is lapsed or has struck out on his or her own, a higher risk strategy for sure. During a witch hunt being a shaman will offer a layer of protection not afforded to the innocent individual or the individual magician. If Walter Cronkite was a priest then Joe Rogan is a shaman, see also Jordan Peterson. During an inquisition or pogrom the shaman will still be guilty of heresy. A rabbi during the inquisition or a scientist once Lamarckism becomes the science of the state. A lot of ordinary people view priests from the church of higher education as shamans and it is only through the imprimatur of authorities that they become priests. Ordinary people will be disdainful of economists during a financial crises because they didn't have magical insight into the future and "see it coming." They will also talk about psychologists as if they have magical powers of asymmetric insight and are mind readers that are easily able to figure others out. Not sure if this actually matters and the distinction between the shaman and priest is completely collapsable except in times when heretics and witches are rooted out by the state or mob.

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What compelling societal injustice do prediction markets solve that would provide the emotional impetus for a grassroots movement in support of them?

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Mar 13, 2023·edited Mar 13, 2023

If you want to try sweeping policy changes, prove them on a smaller scale first. You have ideas about organizing society with prediction markets. Could you organize a *company* with prediction markets, replacing a traditional hierarchical org chart? So the company does whatever its internal prediction markets say it should do, instead of what managers say it should do.

If you could make that work then it would certainly create publicity and evidence for your ideas about national policy. You would need to found a startup organized based on the principle, since it's unlikely any existing company would be willing to "convert" to it. Let even the business plan be determined by a prediction market, like everything else!

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How do we distinguish between a community and a moral community? I guess I should read Durkheim.

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Mar 12, 2023·edited Mar 12, 2023

Regarding:

> It is true that, in certain cases, magicians form a society among themselves. … But these associations … are rare and rather exceptional. To practice his art, the magician has no need whatever to congregate with his peers. He is more often a loner. In general, far from seeking company, he flees it. "He stands aloof, even from his colleagues."

> Furthermore, and above all, when magic societies of this sort are formed, they never encompass all the adherents of magic. Far from it. They encompass only the magicians. Excluded from them are the laity, … A Church is not simply a priestly brotherhood; it is a moral community.

What if a magician, of sorts, decided to defect from the norm (or more accurately: *all* norms), and build a revolutionary platform (transcending not just Twitter/Facebook/Reddit/etc, but religion, "logic", society, politics, journalism, culture, and even "reality" itself)?

Would that be interesting? Would it "change the game" (in that it defines an entirely new one, quite literally), at least plausibly?

"Asking for a friend" (who lacks seed funding, and refuses to go to the den of vipers that is Silicon Valley, for what should be obvious reasons, and also many other not so obvious reasons). 😇

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This framing reminds me of Deleuze and Guattari's treatment of the dynamic between the magician-king and the jurist-priest that maintains the balance of the state apparatus. https://www.atlasofplaces.com/essays/nomadology-the-war-machine/ (An essay that is mostly notable because it contains their comparison of Chess and Go).

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