You can’t address the AI issue unless you understand AI. And you can’t understand AI unless you understand NI (natural intelligence). And you can’t understand NI unless you understand wisdom.
Exceptional intelligence is to a life what a fast vehicle is to a journey. Wisdom is to a life what knowing the destination is to a journey.
Ideally, intelligence is being used to interpret (irrefutable) evidence with (testable) logic and to test the interpretation by subjecting the logic to rigorous skepticism. Otherwise, intelligence is being used to interpret evidence with logic and to invent excuses for why the logic should not be subjected to skepticism, rigorous or otherwise.
Naming itself is one thing our species got right. We are Homo sapiens (the wise hominin), not Homo intelligentia (the intelligent hominin).
It's been about a year since it became obvious to a significant fraction of software engineers that the benefits of AI agents for software development should have big effects. Probably half that since the more savvy C-suites started trying to adapt. None of the people involved have yet gone through a single end-of-year review or next-year hiring plan. So no, an economist should *not* expect to be seeing big effects in wages yet. That's not the timescale on which incumbents make decisions and incorporate new information. It *is* the timescale on which young startups operate and can start to threaten incumbents. And it is the timescale on which AI labs themselves (the ones who are in fact paying much more than the rest of tech) operate.
You can’t address the AI issue unless you understand AI. And you can’t understand AI unless you understand NI (natural intelligence). And you can’t understand NI unless you understand wisdom.
Exceptional intelligence is to a life what a fast vehicle is to a journey. Wisdom is to a life what knowing the destination is to a journey.
Ideally, intelligence is being used to interpret (irrefutable) evidence with (testable) logic and to test the interpretation by subjecting the logic to rigorous skepticism. Otherwise, intelligence is being used to interpret evidence with logic and to invent excuses for why the logic should not be subjected to skepticism, rigorous or otherwise.
Naming itself is one thing our species got right. We are Homo sapiens (the wise hominin), not Homo intelligentia (the intelligent hominin).
It's been about a year since it became obvious to a significant fraction of software engineers that the benefits of AI agents for software development should have big effects. Probably half that since the more savvy C-suites started trying to adapt. None of the people involved have yet gone through a single end-of-year review or next-year hiring plan. So no, an economist should *not* expect to be seeing big effects in wages yet. That's not the timescale on which incumbents make decisions and incorporate new information. It *is* the timescale on which young startups operate and can start to threaten incumbents. And it is the timescale on which AI labs themselves (the ones who are in fact paying much more than the rest of tech) operate.
Then you expect to see big effects soon. Wanna bet on that?