In my last post, I recommended these assumptions: It is worth knowing how far to grabby alien civs (GCs), even if that doesn’t tell about other alien types. Try-try parts of the great filter alone make it unlikely for any one small volume to birth an GC in 14 billion years.
Ok, that seems true but I don't see how that lets you support the estimates about how far away grabby aliens might be. There are all sorts of probability distributions that satisfy just that one inequality. Heck, I could adopt a probability distribution where the probability that we are a civ which reached this point earlier than other civs is equal to probability we are a civ well before we spread to the stars and no civilizations become grabby. There are all sorts of weird distributions one could have which won't support the conclusion absent uniformity assumptions.
I'd say we have strong reasons to believe we are in a civ well before it spreads into the stars, and thus if it so spreads we are very early. We don't have nearly as strong of reasons to think that we are in a civ that reached this point in time earlier than other civs.
Wait, coming back to this I'm kinda confused. Are you assuming that we are a randomly selected civilization in the universe? If so why?
Isn't the more natural assumption that each individual is a randomly selected sapient in the universe meaning that, if grabby aliens occur, it's super unlikely we wouldn't be born as part of a giant star empire.
Indeed, it seems like it's inconsistent to simultaneously assume that we are a randomly (uniformly) selected sapient in the universe and that we are a uniformly selected civilization. So which one is the right assumption to pick?
Can I ask how long it took for you to come up with a model like this? I tried to answer some very similar questions and you've done such a better job of it that I just need to know whether you whipped this together in a couple afternoons or if you've been working on this for months.
Our planet might be at risk of birthing an aggressive alien civilization - though one might hope that any such civilization is not too alien. It doesn't seem like a slam dunk, though. There might be setbacks, or it might be harder than we thought. Our planet is like a seed - and it isn't clear whether it will successfully germinate. So: we might not even have one data point to extrapolate from.
Ok, that seems true but I don't see how that lets you support the estimates about how far away grabby aliens might be. There are all sorts of probability distributions that satisfy just that one inequality. Heck, I could adopt a probability distribution where the probability that we are a civ which reached this point earlier than other civs is equal to probability we are a civ well before we spread to the stars and no civilizations become grabby. There are all sorts of weird distributions one could have which won't support the conclusion absent uniformity assumptions.
I'd say we have strong reasons to believe we are in a civ well before it spreads into the stars, and thus if it so spreads we are very early. We don't have nearly as strong of reasons to think that we are in a civ that reached this point in time earlier than other civs.
Wait, coming back to this I'm kinda confused. Are you assuming that we are a randomly selected civilization in the universe? If so why?
Isn't the more natural assumption that each individual is a randomly selected sapient in the universe meaning that, if grabby aliens occur, it's super unlikely we wouldn't be born as part of a giant star empire.
Indeed, it seems like it's inconsistent to simultaneously assume that we are a randomly (uniformly) selected sapient in the universe and that we are a uniformly selected civilization. So which one is the right assumption to pick?
This came to be quite fast after thinking about Eden, but after a lifetime of preparation in related topics.
Can I ask how long it took for you to come up with a model like this? I tried to answer some very similar questions and you've done such a better job of it that I just need to know whether you whipped this together in a couple afternoons or if you've been working on this for months.
Our planet might be at risk of birthing an aggressive alien civilization - though one might hope that any such civilization is not too alien. It doesn't seem like a slam dunk, though. There might be setbacks, or it might be harder than we thought. Our planet is like a seed - and it isn't clear whether it will successfully germinate. So: we might not even have one data point to extrapolate from.