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Peter Gerdes's avatar

Ok, that seems true but I don't see how that lets you support the estimates about how far away grabby aliens might be. There are all sorts of probability distributions that satisfy just that one inequality. Heck, I could adopt a probability distribution where the probability that we are a civ which reached this point earlier than other civs is equal to probability we are a civ well before we spread to the stars and no civilizations become grabby. There are all sorts of weird distributions one could have which won't support the conclusion absent uniformity assumptions.

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RobinHanson's avatar

I'd say we have strong reasons to believe we are in a civ well before it spreads into the stars, and thus if it so spreads we are very early. We don't have nearly as strong of reasons to think that we are in a civ that reached this point in time earlier than other civs.

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