At Marginal Revolution, Justin Wolfers suggests, and at Midas Oracle, Eric Zitzewitz suggests, that someone has been manipulating the Intrade markets to make Hillary look good – Intrade now gives Hillary a 77% chance of winning if she is nominated. If that seems too high, trade accordingly.

She is currently trading at 51.5%. The history graph at Intrade seems to show that she has never had more than about 58% of winning the nomination, and that was in late 2006. She never seems to have been much above 53% in 2007 so far.

Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? - by Koleman Strumpfhttp://www.midasoracle.org/...

Mike, you are right; I have corrected the error.

I read that as saying 77% chance of winning presidency if she wins the nomination, not "a 77% chance of winning the Democratic party nomination."

Nick, see point 3b in Eric's post.

She is currently trading at 51.5%. The history graph at Intrade seems to show that she has never had more than about 58% of winning the nomination, and that was in late 2006. She never seems to have been much above 53% in 2007 so far.