To a first approximation, the future will either be a singleton, a single integrated power choosing the future of everything, or it will be competitive, with conflicting powers each choosing how to perpetuate themselves. Selection effects apply robustly to competition scenarios; some perpetuation strategies will tend to dominate the future. To help us choose between a singleton and competition, and between competitive variations, we can analyze selection effects to understand competitive scenarios. In particular, selection effects can tell us the key feature without which it is very hard to forecast:
Evolved Desires
Evolved Desires
Evolved Desires
To a first approximation, the future will either be a singleton, a single integrated power choosing the future of everything, or it will be competitive, with conflicting powers each choosing how to perpetuate themselves. Selection effects apply robustly to competition scenarios; some perpetuation strategies will tend to dominate the future. To help us choose between a singleton and competition, and between competitive variations, we can analyze selection effects to understand competitive scenarios. In particular, selection effects can tell us the key feature without which it is very hard to forecast:
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