I don't understand the strategy of using LLMs to generate the scores. On what basis can we have any confidence in the numbers generated as having any empirical weight at all?
Besides that - what about low dependence contexts that seem extremely thick? e.g. the internet, (discussion forums etc) where tolerance seems extremely low.
Please always cite the exact model your using when you’re using LLM.
In particular : ChatGPT is an outlier here, and I’m not convinced dismissing it (as the median do) is the right call. Is it 5.2 auto ? instant ? thinking ? If auto, did it get routed to instant or thinking ?
What about other models ? Is it Opus 4.5 or Sonnet 4.5 ? Gemini Pro or Flash ?
The negative correlations sounds very fishy, too. Increasing power means decreasing thickness ? What ? Granted, they are very small, but still.
Robin, here is a list of how they exploit these innate biases:
Ten Ways the 1% Who Owns Almost All Media Are Manipulating Us Right Now by Unknown:
1) The first manipulation is the illusion of choice. You think you have two parties representing different visions for America but both parties are funded by the same billionaires, vote for the same surveillance bills, approve the same defense budgets, and serve the same corporate interests. The choice you are given is which color tie the puppet wears, not who controls the strings.
2) The second manipulation is emotional hijacking. The news does not inform you, it activates you. Every story is framed to trigger fear or anger or disgust because those emotions bypass your rational thinking and make you easier to control. You are not watching journalism. You are being subjected to psychological operations designed to keep you in a constant state of agitation.
3) The third manipulation is tribal sorting. The algorithm learns what makes you angry and feeds you more of it until your entire worldview is shaped by outrage at the other side. You are sorted into a tribe not because you chose it but because keeping you tribal keeps you predictable and profitable.
4) The fourth manipulation is false scarcity. You are told resources are limited and the other tribe is taking what belongs to you. Immigrants are stealing your jobs. Welfare recipients are draining your taxes. The other party is destroying your healthcare. Meanwhile the billionaire class has more wealth than any humans in history and could solve most of these problems tomorrow if they wanted to.
5) The fifth manipulation is memory holing. Stories that threaten powerful interests get buried or forgotten within days. Exposed crimes result in no consequences. Historical context that would help you understand the present is never taught. You are kept in a perpetual present with no past to learn from and no future to plan for.
6) The sixth manipulation is controlled opposition. The voices you think are fighting for you are often funded by the same interests they pretend to oppose. The outrage merchant on your side of the aisle is playing a character designed to keep you engaged and angry and tuned in while nothing ever actually changes.
7) The seventh manipulation is the Overton window. The range of acceptable opinion is artificially narrowed so that anything outside it seems extreme. Ideas that were mainstream fifty years ago are now treated as radical. Ideas that serve elite interests are treated as moderate common sense. You are not choosing your beliefs from the full range of human thought. You are choosing from a menu they wrote.
8) The eighth manipulation is learned helplessness. You are shown so many problems with no solutions that you eventually give up and accept that nothing can change. This is intentional. A population that believes resistance is futile does not resist. They scroll and complain and feel superior for understanding how bad things are while doing absolutely nothing about it.
9) The ninth manipulation is identity capture. Your political affiliation becomes your identity, and any attack on your party feels like an attack on you personally. This makes you defend politicians and policies that harm you because admitting they are wrong would mean admitting you were wrong, and your ego will not allow that.
10) The tenth manipulation is the most insidious of all: you are manipulated into believing you are too smart to be manipulated. Every person reading this thinks the manipulations I described apply to other people, the stupid people, the brainwashed people on the other side. That certainty is itself a manipulation. The moment you believe you are immune is the moment you become most vulnerable
There is something way bigger going on when you can divide everyone in the entire world into an 'us vs them' mentality on almost every single subject.. We cannot let them get away with these ridiculous ancient divide and conquer tactics...
Apologies. Immigration is a touchy subject. Maybe this will be more in line:
There is a major difference in vetted and unvetted immigration which has a high probability of skewing the LLMs results if both outcomes are not accounted for and shown separately:
“Those who enter our country illegally, and those who employ them, disrespect the rule of law. And because we live in an age where terrorists are challenging our borders, we simply cannot allow people to pour into the United States undetected, undocumented, and unchecked. Americans are right to demand better border security and better enforcement of the immigration laws" —Obama
Why he warned this:
Bloomberg: Headline: Venezuela's Violent Deaths Fall to 22-Year Low on Migration
Text: Venezuela's rate of violent deaths dropped to its lowest level in more than two decades following years of massive migration as both criminals and victims fled the nation's economic crisis. —Archived Source: https://archive.is/JOaY9
Did your data points account for wide open borders?
it seems like power and dependence are probably highly correlated and anti-correlated with competition. So I don't know, your regression comes up with dependence as the important variable but power seems like it would be pretty similar. What would be a thin group that has enormous power over its members and no competition? Its hard for me to envision what that would be.
I feel like you are ignoring the most important factor of all: Emotional attachment. When you started speaking of the various groups, the first thing I thought about was how emotionally vital each group was to individuals. Think family, friends, office, physical-local community, online community, country as expanding circles of emotional attachment. I believe emotional attachment/inclusion has much more influence than power and competition.
I agree that emotional attachment would correlate similarly. It just seems more like an output than an input of whatever process we are seeing. The question is what is the underlying cause.
As Garett Jones argues in *Hive Mind*, the average IQ of your fellow citizens matters much more than your own. Therefore, I think good evidence supports the idea that proposal #1 ("nation member outcomes do not in fact depend so much on what other nation members do") is false. Proposal #3 ("immigrants they worry about are in fact likely to take actions that will give them good outcomes") may convince me to abandon being relatively skeptical of immigration, but the field of behavioral genetics indicates to me that the selection of immigrants really matters long-term. Our current immigration system weakly attempts to select immigrants on the basis of underlying human capital: "skilled" immigrants only make up about 7-8% of overall immigration to the USA.
I don't understand the strategy of using LLMs to generate the scores. On what basis can we have any confidence in the numbers generated as having any empirical weight at all?
Besides that - what about low dependence contexts that seem extremely thick? e.g. the internet, (discussion forums etc) where tolerance seems extremely low.
Please always cite the exact model your using when you’re using LLM.
In particular : ChatGPT is an outlier here, and I’m not convinced dismissing it (as the median do) is the right call. Is it 5.2 auto ? instant ? thinking ? If auto, did it get routed to instant or thinking ?
What about other models ? Is it Opus 4.5 or Sonnet 4.5 ? Gemini Pro or Flash ?
The negative correlations sounds very fishy, too. Increasing power means decreasing thickness ? What ? Granted, they are very small, but still.
typo: killed might this unit be killed
fixed; thanks
Robin, here is a list of how they exploit these innate biases:
Ten Ways the 1% Who Owns Almost All Media Are Manipulating Us Right Now by Unknown:
1) The first manipulation is the illusion of choice. You think you have two parties representing different visions for America but both parties are funded by the same billionaires, vote for the same surveillance bills, approve the same defense budgets, and serve the same corporate interests. The choice you are given is which color tie the puppet wears, not who controls the strings.
2) The second manipulation is emotional hijacking. The news does not inform you, it activates you. Every story is framed to trigger fear or anger or disgust because those emotions bypass your rational thinking and make you easier to control. You are not watching journalism. You are being subjected to psychological operations designed to keep you in a constant state of agitation.
3) The third manipulation is tribal sorting. The algorithm learns what makes you angry and feeds you more of it until your entire worldview is shaped by outrage at the other side. You are sorted into a tribe not because you chose it but because keeping you tribal keeps you predictable and profitable.
4) The fourth manipulation is false scarcity. You are told resources are limited and the other tribe is taking what belongs to you. Immigrants are stealing your jobs. Welfare recipients are draining your taxes. The other party is destroying your healthcare. Meanwhile the billionaire class has more wealth than any humans in history and could solve most of these problems tomorrow if they wanted to.
5) The fifth manipulation is memory holing. Stories that threaten powerful interests get buried or forgotten within days. Exposed crimes result in no consequences. Historical context that would help you understand the present is never taught. You are kept in a perpetual present with no past to learn from and no future to plan for.
6) The sixth manipulation is controlled opposition. The voices you think are fighting for you are often funded by the same interests they pretend to oppose. The outrage merchant on your side of the aisle is playing a character designed to keep you engaged and angry and tuned in while nothing ever actually changes.
7) The seventh manipulation is the Overton window. The range of acceptable opinion is artificially narrowed so that anything outside it seems extreme. Ideas that were mainstream fifty years ago are now treated as radical. Ideas that serve elite interests are treated as moderate common sense. You are not choosing your beliefs from the full range of human thought. You are choosing from a menu they wrote.
8) The eighth manipulation is learned helplessness. You are shown so many problems with no solutions that you eventually give up and accept that nothing can change. This is intentional. A population that believes resistance is futile does not resist. They scroll and complain and feel superior for understanding how bad things are while doing absolutely nothing about it.
9) The ninth manipulation is identity capture. Your political affiliation becomes your identity, and any attack on your party feels like an attack on you personally. This makes you defend politicians and policies that harm you because admitting they are wrong would mean admitting you were wrong, and your ego will not allow that.
10) The tenth manipulation is the most insidious of all: you are manipulated into believing you are too smart to be manipulated. Every person reading this thinks the manipulations I described apply to other people, the stupid people, the brainwashed people on the other side. That certainty is itself a manipulation. The moment you believe you are immune is the moment you become most vulnerable
Much more must know information on these insidious manipulations here: https://tritorch.substack.com/p/there-is-something-way-bigger-going
There is something way bigger going on when you can divide everyone in the entire world into an 'us vs them' mentality on almost every single subject.. We cannot let them get away with these ridiculous ancient divide and conquer tactics...
Your comment doesn't much address the post.
Apologies. Immigration is a touchy subject. Maybe this will be more in line:
There is a major difference in vetted and unvetted immigration which has a high probability of skewing the LLMs results if both outcomes are not accounted for and shown separately:
“Those who enter our country illegally, and those who employ them, disrespect the rule of law. And because we live in an age where terrorists are challenging our borders, we simply cannot allow people to pour into the United States undetected, undocumented, and unchecked. Americans are right to demand better border security and better enforcement of the immigration laws" —Obama
Why he warned this:
Bloomberg: Headline: Venezuela's Violent Deaths Fall to 22-Year Low on Migration
Text: Venezuela's rate of violent deaths dropped to its lowest level in more than two decades following years of massive migration as both criminals and victims fled the nation's economic crisis. —Archived Source: https://archive.is/JOaY9
Did your data points account for wide open borders?
I didn't ask the LLMs about immigration.
Understood, sorry to have disturbed your forum I misunderstood.
Noiceeee
it seems like power and dependence are probably highly correlated and anti-correlated with competition. So I don't know, your regression comes up with dependence as the important variable but power seems like it would be pretty similar. What would be a thin group that has enormous power over its members and no competition? Its hard for me to envision what that would be.
I feel like you are ignoring the most important factor of all: Emotional attachment. When you started speaking of the various groups, the first thing I thought about was how emotionally vital each group was to individuals. Think family, friends, office, physical-local community, online community, country as expanding circles of emotional attachment. I believe emotional attachment/inclusion has much more influence than power and competition.
I agree that emotional attachment would correlate similarly. It just seems more like an output than an input of whatever process we are seeing. The question is what is the underlying cause.
As Garett Jones argues in *Hive Mind*, the average IQ of your fellow citizens matters much more than your own. Therefore, I think good evidence supports the idea that proposal #1 ("nation member outcomes do not in fact depend so much on what other nation members do") is false. Proposal #3 ("immigrants they worry about are in fact likely to take actions that will give them good outcomes") may convince me to abandon being relatively skeptical of immigration, but the field of behavioral genetics indicates to me that the selection of immigrants really matters long-term. Our current immigration system weakly attempts to select immigrants on the basis of underlying human capital: "skilled" immigrants only make up about 7-8% of overall immigration to the USA.