A new PNAS paper: Prediction markets set up to estimate the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in The Reproducibility Project: Psychology predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of individual forecasts. … Hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%). … Prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications. (
Could Gambling Save Psychology?
Could Gambling Save Psychology?
Could Gambling Save Psychology?
A new PNAS paper: Prediction markets set up to estimate the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in The Reproducibility Project: Psychology predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of individual forecasts. … Hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%). … Prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications. (
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