Most of you have probably seen typical “comic book” style stories. Or action movies, which usually have a related style. I’m not saying all graphic novels or active movies follow the same style or all bad styles. I’m just saying there is a recognizable trend among typical popular stories with dramatic settings. Stories that try hard to engage wide audiences
Any recommended case studies, or sources for case studies?
I haven't witnessed this 10% or less figure. If your confidence is that low, wouldn't it be better to just say we have very little idea and not call it a best guess, but only a sketch that is valuable mostly to communicate that the future might be utterly bizarre? Future Imperfect style.
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The wiser audiences don't have enough money, even in net, to be worth pitching cases towards?
Moreover unlike the vast majority of futurist, Robin has many times assigned explicit probabilities to his predicted scenarios. Which are almost always quite conservative often around 10% or less.
Robin hasn't presented his vision of an em-future in story form. Ironically, at least according to what I've read on this website, that's one of the reasons it's considered so implausible.
But clearly Robin doesn't want to become more popular and influential. If he did he'd use the successful storytelling tropes used by other futurists. He must just care about the truth. God bless him.
Could you be more specific? What do you think are typical futurist claims that sound unrealistically comic-booky, and how?
The more surprising thing is that I consistently see “futurists” touting best guess future scenarios that sound more like comics than cases.
What do you find surprising about it?
“Futurists” and fiction authors have quite similar incentives: both have to provide entertaining, intriguingm, emotionally moving, morally inspiring narratives. Both don't have to particularly care about being proven wrong, fiction authors because they write overt fiction, and futurists because their "future" is always at least 15 - 20 years ahead.
Heck, the vast majority of common futurist memes originated as straight adaptations of popular sci-fi tropes.
Historians, on the other hand, have to provide accurate descriptions of historical events, which can be often boring, trivially predictable or completely unpredictable, lack clear-cut black-and-white moral lessons, etc.
Moreover, historians have to care about accuracy: If they make a false, unsupported or exaggerated claim, it could be discovered immediately and they would lose reputation.
Can you really give a disapproving finger-point at overblown, story-like futurism? Aren't you the guy who says the world will enter a new level of super-development brought on by skyscrapers full of trillions of robot office workers?