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Charlene Cobleigh Soreff's avatar

Re "hidden disasters much more severe and frequent than we suspect":

Are prediction markets able to assess existential risks?

It isn't clear to me how a successful prediction would be paid.

On a slightly less existential question (since it would not preclude AGI-based colonization)

"Metaculus has 68% on AGI existing by 2030 but only 2% on humans

going extinct by 2100. That seems way too optimistic about AI

alignment."

( from https://astralcodexten.subs... )As prediction markets currently run, is this truly expected to be the best available estimate of the odds? Can it be improved?

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Tim Tyler's avatar

That sounds about right: older civilizations might be able to prevent younger civilizations from seeing them coming, but there would be a period when younger civilizations leak their location data to any older civilizations nearby who are looking in their direction. However, it might not be possible to detect young civilizations in other galaxies at all. I think at the moment, we can only see if a whole galaxy emits biosignatures - due to noise. Younger civilizations could possibly escape being detected by older ones - by being small and distant.

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