Beware Boldly Going Together
Imagine living long ago in a forager group, a group that specialized in following a particular kind of herd through its annual cycle. Then one of you noticed another new kind of herd far off in the distance. Upon investigation, this new kind of animal was tastier, easier to catch, and had a larger herd. So some of you switched to following this new herd, and then over the next few years more and more of you switched until only a few of you remained with the old herd.
Then, surprisingly to you, the new herd changed its migration path, moving into new territory, about which your elders knew little. But the new land looked plentiful, and so most of you followed that new herd into new lands. Then after another year, the herd started heading north, and soon joined other herds of its kind. While this new land was harsher, a larger herd made up for that, and you continued to follow it.
Then your new herd approached a wide mountain range, which was a mile tall and very steep. At which point you understood why these new animals had strange goat-like feet - they could climb straight up that slope! They would reach the top in a day, while it would take you weeks to do so, even if you abandoned the weakest quarter of your group. At which point the herd would be long gone; you will probably starve.
Your group had found something new that looked better, and mostly committed to it, but then after a long delay it turned out to be worse, and most of you died. Let this be a warning about making big apparently-attractive changes to your society; it might take a while to find out if they are really for the best.
Consider this story a parable of humanity’s search in cultural space. A few centuries ago we had traditional cultures that we could be pretty sure were adaptive, at least in context. But then we found new powerful ways to grow our economy, and changed our cultures radically in support of that. Chasing this new opportunity out into uncharted culture spaces, we risk arriving at dangerous places that are too far from our origin to allow a safe return.
Sure, but there's an equally powerful just-so story about a forager group that listens to the elders, ignores tastier herds, and pursues an ever-dwindling old herd until it is hunted to extinction, and the entire forager group dies out because they did not explore obvious and self-evidently good opportunities for improvement out of a fear of the unknown. Context *always* changes, whether we change it or not. Volcanoes erupt. Bird viruses mutate. There may not *be* anything to safely return *to*.
I like this lesson, and another lesson might be that successful groups don’t just switch herds, they diversify. They test the new path while keeping the old one, and they build backups. When the new herd moves on, they still have rivers, berry meadows, and old trails to fall back on. Adaptation isn’t about clinging to the past or abandoning it, its about keeping enough of it alive to bridge the future.