Two years ago I predicted that the future will eventually take a long view: If competition continues for long enough, eventually our world should contain units that do care about the distant future, and are capable of planning effectively over long timescales. And eventually these units should have enough of a competitive advantage to dominate. … The future not being neglected seems such a wonderfully good outcome that I’m tempted to call the “Long View Day” when this starts one of the most important future dates.
Sure, choices made by that elite aren't getting better due to competition within that elite gossip process. But there are other processes in the world that are improving the elites who use this process.
Your initial comment about long views was conditioned "If competition continues long enough...". But the main drawback of the world forager elite is that it stifles competition, preventing the trial and error mechanism that would allow it to get better over time.
Agreed. Not sure why they would suddenly get smarter or better-trained. Especially when they seem to be quite convinced they are very very smart right now.
What is the mechanism for getting there? Is there selection pressure in that direction? I find it just as easy to take a pessimistic view that as elites become detached from accountability for day to day concerns their views might become lower and lower quality and more subject to groupthink as social incentives take over.
Readers/author might enjoy The Long Now foundation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wi... / https://longnow.org/
Sure, choices made by that elite aren't getting better due to competition within that elite gossip process. But there are other processes in the world that are improving the elites who use this process.
Your initial comment about long views was conditioned "If competition continues long enough...". But the main drawback of the world forager elite is that it stifles competition, preventing the trial and error mechanism that would allow it to get better over time.
I'm talking about focusing more on more abstract moral claims. Not sure if that counts as new moral "sensibility".
As you talk about increasingly levels of abstraction, are you talking about the development of new moral sensibilities?
China is there already, as its 2021, 2035, 2049, and 2060 goals demonstrate.
Much of that must be credited to their ancient custom of permitting only geniuses to enter politics.
Right now, it takes an IQ of 140 to begin on the bottom political rung (of 23).https://i.imgur.com/W3sKehB...
There's a positive overall long term historical trend.
Agreed. Not sure why they would suddenly get smarter or better-trained. Especially when they seem to be quite convinced they are very very smart right now.
What is the mechanism for getting there? Is there selection pressure in that direction? I find it just as easy to take a pessimistic view that as elites become detached from accountability for day to day concerns their views might become lower and lower quality and more subject to groupthink as social incentives take over.