At Marginal Revolution, Justin Wolfers suggests, and at Midas Oracle, Eric Zitzewitz suggests, that someone has been manipulating the Intrade markets to make Hillary look good – Intrade now gives Hillary a 77% chance of winning if she is nominated. If that seems too high, trade accordingly.
Added: Koleman Strumpf says it is 65% now, other markets have similar estimates, and maybe it represents real info.
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She is currently trading at 51.5%. The history graph at Intrade seems to show that she has never had more than about 58% of winning the nomination, and that was in late 2006. She never seems to have been much above 53% in 2007 so far.
Nick, see point 3b in Eric’s post.
I read that as saying 77% chance of winning presidency if she wins the nomination, not “a 77% chance of winning the Democratic party nomination.”
Mike, you are right; I have corrected the error.
Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? – by Koleman Strumpf
http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market/