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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Why argue about the probabilities of something that is all purely speculative? Isn't it likely that whatever scenario best reflects our own internalized fears and/or hopes is the one that will resonate? Anyone who has a comment here that something or other is "most likely" is blowing smoke up your a$$.

It's far more interesting to list all the possibilities, and see if anyone has any we haven't heard before.

As a practical matter, however, wouldn't it be prudent to plan as if the worst one we can come up with is the most probable? "If you want peace, prepare for war."

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robertwiblin's avatar

Similar opinion at Sentient Developments: http://feedproxy.google.com...

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