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Peter Gerdes's avatar

So you agree either it's probability 0 that we live in a infinietly duplicated universe or it's probability 1? After all, the issue with the infinite case (sufficiently large finite get arbitrarily close) amplifies any non-zero prior to 1.

That very much seems wrong to me. And, indeed, it seems wrong because the version where you are biased toward multiple copies are answering a different question. They are answering the question of how you should bet if you are on the hook for all your duplicates (eg even a vanishingly small risk of all of you being tortured for a day really is infinietly bad) but that suggests it's not answering the question of what credence best reflects the evidence the world has infinite duplicates.

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Tim Tyler's avatar

As far as I understand it, simulism does likey imply some sort of doomsday. It is probably a personal doomsday, though. The implication is not so much that the entire simulation will end soon, but the branch of the simulation containing us is fairly likely to end soon - since branches from a random point in a tree search are typically fairly short lived. Some level of speculation is involved in this line of reasoning, though.

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