Discussion about this post

User's avatar
RobinHanson's avatar

We give distributions over grabby origin dates, and also distributions over the volume they control as a function of origin rank. They will eventually take ALL of space.

Expand full comment
Lukas Finnveden's avatar

Could this get more quantitative? I'd love to see the paper report numbers on:

* In expectation, what fraction of the accessible universe will be colonised by aliens even if we don't become grabby?* What's the ratio between the expected amount of space we'll arrive *first* to that aliens will *eventually* arrive to; and the expected amount of space that *could* be colonised by us but that *wouldn't* ever be colonised by anyone else.

These seem like the main decision-relevant numbers that can fall out of projects like this. I discuss some reasons for that in my related post, here: https://forum.effectivealtr...

Expand full comment
26 more comments...

No posts