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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Vote on values, bet on beliefs.

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

You can't decide this question without deciding which **values** matter because the skew of prediction markets and the way they influence the world will change which values win out. And that is an old question. There is no way to convince a skeptic that a different set of values than his would be correct. This is why at some point we have to rely on some sort of tribal notion of what is "good" or "correct" behavior. If Robin thinks the values decision can be outsourced to some prediction market or to any neutral mechanical system, then he's back to the flaws of the ultra rationalists. Given that choice, I'd rather rely on my intuitions and my flawed tribal loyalties, than "truthful" decisions that might skew towards values I would consider alien and unacceptable.

P.S. Bear in mind that Robin can't even establish that locally improving "truth" on certain narrow margins improves human welfare.

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