Overcoming Bias

Share this post

What Conjunction Fallacy?

www.overcomingbias.com

Discover more from Overcoming Bias

This is a blog on why we believe and do what we do, why we pretend otherwise, how we might do better, and what our descendants might do, if they don't all die.
Over 14,000 subscribers
Continue reading
Sign in

What Conjunction Fallacy?

Robin Hanson
Jun 25, 2009
Share this post

What Conjunction Fallacy?

www.overcomingbias.com
4
Share

Edi Karni:

This paper reports the results of a series of experiments designed to test whether and to what extent individuals succumb to the conjunction fallacy. Using an experimental design of Kahneman and Tversky (1983), it finds that given mild incentives, the proportion of individuals who violate the conjunction principle is significantly lower than that reported by Kahneman and Tversky. Moreover, when subjects are allowed to consult with other subjects, these proportions fall dramatically, particularly when the size of the group rises from two to three. These findings cast serious doubts about the importance and robustness of such violations for the understanding of real-life economic decisions.

Hat tip to Dan Houser.

Share this post

What Conjunction Fallacy?

www.overcomingbias.com
4
Share
4 Comments
Share this discussion

What Conjunction Fallacy?

www.overcomingbias.com
chy12
May 15

For that reason plenty of superstars bring Replicas LV purses, as an example Jennifer Lopez, Jessica Simpson and the like sometimes one tend not to genuinely notice the superstar though the Gucci these folks wear the ensemble.? 

Expand full comment
Reply
Share
Robin Hanson
May 15

You are right; my bad.

Expand full comment
Reply
Share
2 more comments...
Top
New
Community

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Robin Hanson
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing