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Godfree Roberts's avatar

There is zero corruption where it matters most: at the policy-making level, which Congress controls. Approval of Beijing's policies is 94%. Approval of Washington's policies is 28%

Local government approval has risen from 62% in 2012, to 70% in 2021, closing to American local government approval of 72%.

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lump1's avatar

I suspect that Robin is proposing we place more trust in prediction markets and maybe the sort of ordinary-seeming people that Tetlock identified as superforecasters. I'm sure he'd worry less about this if status were closely tied to having a track record of being consistently right.

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