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SK's avatar

Well, Turchin got this one bang on the money.

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tipareth's avatar

This is somewhat compelling but also somewhat lacking. What's the scoop on the nearly hundred years quiet from 1780 to 1870? Also none of these incidences were widespread. In 1870 it was farmers. In 1920 it was bank rushes and in 1970 it was the civil rights movement. The most interesting part to me is how lynchings (sadly) directly jumped with riots in the 19th and  20th centuries. Now they are all but gone. Are we going to see a new violent expression of unrest? Also terrorism is a relative newcomer and is currently the biggest mover. However, our current government is far more vigilant on this front than any of the other subjects on the graph. My conclusion is that this study mostly shows us the direct relation between economic trouble and social unrest, which is good. I'm not seeing it as too useful a predictive model. I would definitely say that with our current economic troubles and increasingly polarized social climate the US may see some strife.

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