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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

The fact that calls get scanned (Echelon program) is already established. The question of whether everything gets stored requires a feasability calculation (which people have come up with in the other comments), but because the black budget of the US government is so large (on the order of $100 billion I believe) we won't know for sure if everything gets stored until such information is declassified, which may not happen anytime soon, you see what Robin Hanson forgot to mention is that stuff doesn't just get declassified automatically after x years, it only happens after the stuff in question has ended and a new wind is blowing in Washington D.C. so if everything is being recorded and it's still being recorded in 2063 then in 2063 the government won't declassify that they recorded everything in 2013.

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

The judge of the bet can't be anonymous, but the bettors can be. You can buy/sell predictions using blinded tokens. For example using an Open-Transactions asset over Tor, paying with Bitcoin.

It doesn't exist yet and wouldn't be very stable (most of your bet would be on Bitcoin volatility) but it's technically feasible.

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