

Discover more from Overcoming Bias
Status seems pretty central to the UFO phenomena.
For example, reports have been filed on well over 100K encounters worldwide so far, but most of the books & movies on the topic focus on the same few cases. These cases are chosen in part for having more witnesses, detail, and physical evidence. But they seem especially chosen for having prestigious witnesses and locations. Seen by police or military workers, especially pilots. At military bases, especially housing nukes. These same books and movies are most eager to interview sympathetic people who are very high status, such as heads of state.
Similarly, many ancient legal systems had formal rules relating status to whose legal testimony to believe. And the social status of witnesses matters greatly today in court, even when there are no explicit rules requiring this.
Apparently most who witness UFOs as part of their job don’t report them, fearing reputation consequences. Because UFO fans are widely seen as very low status, at least among cultural elites. Similarly, organizations like police, militaries, airlines, and airports don’t want to be associated with such events, and so discourage reports by members. Unless some outside monitoring system discourages it, such orgs probably simply destroy such reports when they can.
When high officials have been asked privately why they would be reluctant to publicly admit to UFOs, they consistently say that the public rewards them for projecting ability and knowledge re their topic areas. UFOs require them instead to admit that they don’t know, and that there may be other parties around far more able than they. This effect is larger for police and militaries, compared to other agencies. And it is largest for the United States, at least during the period when it has been nearly the world’s dominant military power.
This all fits with several other militaries around the world releasing their UFO reports, long before the US has considered doing so. And it predicts that coming US release will be minimal, at least compared to the data the US could have and may have been collecting.
As a mildly elite academic, I can directly feel the status hit. If UFOs have an exotic intelligent cause, then we as a species have a lot less freedom than we thought to direct our destiny. And our governments, elites, and academics can do less to protect or inform us.
Yes, we might fund more UFO research, but I honestly don’t see the evidence situation changing that much for the indefinite future. Given how much data we already have, I don’t see more funding changing the overall data situation that much. These aren’t events you can seek out; you have to wait for them. And if there are intelligent exotic UFO causers here, they are clearly not eager to clearly show themselves.
And as long as the data situation remains ambiguous, I expect academic elites to remain adamant in dismissing exotic explanations. They’ll probably divert most funding they get on this topic to other topics they respect more. It will be hard to make much intellectual progress here, and those who do will be consistently slighted by academic elites. Even if society comes to accept UFOs more as a legitimate topic of investigation, elites will make very sure that the people who have so far championed this cause will not get more respect. Instead funding and respect will go to existing elites who deign to touch on the topic, at least from acceptable angles.
Status effects may even help explain some key features of UFO behavior. For example, among humans today, the response to an aggressive physical attack usually depends on how strong is the attacker relative to the defender. (The strengths of both sides’ allies are usually included in this calculation.) When the attacker is much stronger, the usual response is submission. And if they have similar strength, then the defender is likely to react vigorously.
However, if the attacker is far weaker, like a toddler attacking an adult, the usual response is to signal one’s strength by easily deflecting the attack, with little harm to either side. And in the reports I’ve read, this seems to be the usual reaction of UFOs to human attack: easy deflection. Which seems to signal their awareness, intelligence, abilities, and status stance. Maybe they sometimes let us seem them just so they can dis us in this way.
Status effects might even explain their lack of communication. (If they exist, of course.) Often small nations are eager to “enter into talks” with big nations just for the status bump this gives; “they take us seriously, and include us among those who must be consulted”. Conversely, the ultimate status dunk is to refuse to talk to or about someone; you act as if they are as worthy of this as a gnat. Might this explain the otherwise-puzzling lack of direct communication from intelligent exotic causes of UFOs?
A perhaps related and more ominous possible reason for their lack of communication is that they expect this to lead to us asking them some awkward questions. About our history, their expectations about us, their previous behavior toward us, their future plans regarding us, etc. Often the simplest way to avoid having to answer awkward questions is simply refusing to talk. Maybe how they plan to treat us reflects their view of our relative status, and we might not react well to hearing this.
UFOs and Status
In light of your work, what would UFOs/UAPs indicate if extraterrestrial alien, and secretive? I can't help but speculate that Earth, even if early, is just a model. If aspiring but currently unqualified grabby alien neighbors (perhaps non-grabby that wants to prepare against grabby expansion or maybe early grabby tendencies themselves) discovered our already dead civilization in ruins, it would afford the chance to study artifacts and come to conclusion of the first evolution, but that wouldn't be as rewarding as a restart to observe. UFOs as peripheral phenomenon make perfect sense if Earth hosted a failed quiet alien race that washed out on a hard step towards power (went extinct). They could potentially find adequate DNA samples or blend with their own to fill in gaps.
Some of the benefits of a "restart and observe" would be documenting natural hard steps and timelines, inferring better data about both quiet and loud aliens (contrast points), experimenting with the hard steps, introduction of accelerators (technology or biological) and would be the safest way to prepare before making contact with a Grabby Civilization.
It would require the Observers to live in the peripheral of the inhabitants to not contaminate that study. It would be beneficial to accelerate progress by some method (technology, breeding, viral) as it is a race to be more competitive themselves and be prepared earlier so they would likely make secretive contact and deals with control groups (government) to accomplish. Intervention makes more sense than just hoping the restart evolves the right ways for their data requirements. It may even make sense to restart a quiet extinct race with a grabby evolutionary bias to gain direct knowledge on development while being able to pull the plug at any point. They would probably monitor weapons of mass destruction to ensure the experiment did not end early, and deny expansion to space.
They would "pull the plug" and "restart" as often as necessary to explore and document all requirements. Indicators of this may be numerous extinction events, myths about "god's" giving capabilities such as agriculture or governance and laws (an evidence of restart) and out of place artifacts that are older than we expect and are ignored for not fitting a narrative.
But what if you're getting the basics *wrong*?