On April 27, I talked at Harvard Business School on information accounting: audio, slides. On May 5, I talked in Geneva on the economics of artificial intelligence: audio, slides.
Hanson claims that there hasn’t been acceleration and at the same time makes it seem as if the Industrsial Revolution appeared out of nowhere, although he adds that the economy has been doubling every 1,000 years.
1) I don’t see the evidence of the doubling of the economy every 1,000. He doesn’t tell the audience that this claim is based only on population doublings.
2) Economists have estimated 0.1% growth per capita for Western Europe in the 1600s, then up to but no greater than 0.4% to 0.5% during the 1700s in Britain. From 1800 or so, growth rate estimates improve significantly (especially after 1820) then acceleration continues into 1900 and 2000 with obvious variance.
One can’t conclude that there will necessarily be explosive growth per capita by 2040 to 2060, but an extrapolation from where the lead countries have been since 1650 shows much faster growth for the OECD in coming decades and likely the entire world since globalization is continuing.
In your first talk you mention that the edit metaphor may be less off-putting than the trading one, and in the context of a question of the difficulties women can have with male consensus-generating styles. But nobody mentioned any of the recent hubbub of the extremely male nature of Wikipedia editing.
Does anyone have the audio for the information accounting talk?
Hanson claims that there hasn’t been acceleration and at the same time makes it seem as if the Industrsial Revolution appeared out of nowhere, although he adds that the economy has been doubling every 1,000 years.
1) I don’t see the evidence of the doubling of the economy every 1,000. He doesn’t tell the audience that this claim is based only on population doublings.
2) Economists have estimated 0.1% growth per capita for Western Europe in the 1600s, then up to but no greater than 0.4% to 0.5% during the 1700s in Britain. From 1800 or so, growth rate estimates improve significantly (especially after 1820) then acceleration continues into 1900 and 2000 with obvious variance.
One can’t conclude that there will necessarily be explosive growth per capita by 2040 to 2060, but an extrapolation from where the lead countries have been since 1650 shows much faster growth for the OECD in coming decades and likely the entire world since globalization is continuing.
Where specifically in Geneva was the second talk? Or to be more specific, who was the audience?
In your first talk you mention that the edit metaphor may be less off-putting than the trading one, and in the context of a question of the difficulties women can have with male consensus-generating styles. But nobody mentioned any of the recent hubbub of the extremely male nature of Wikipedia editing.
Is it just me, or was everyone at the second talk a Malthusian?