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Peter Gerdes's avatar

Ohh, that's a good point (about signaling their importance by the fact that others follow them). I wonder if part of the difficulty in getting prediction markets up off the ground is that it doesn't have the same kind of nice fit with informal structures of admiration and status the way you have pointed out that this method does.

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RobinHanson's avatar

Placing misleading bets then changing them at the last minute is also an issue in pari-mutuels, but in a busy restaurant I'm pretty sure associates won't have much time for that.

In many analogous situations, people often choose first in order to signal their status by the fact that others copy their choices.

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