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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

I'm Swiss and you'd have to pay me really significant amounts of money to get me to live in the US permanently. So anecdotally, the opposite is true.

And I know the same holds for most of my peers. Most would work in the US for a year or two, but could not imagine being there their entire life.

It even goes so far that several explicitly rule out top US business schools (personally, I'm looking to get into LBS or Insead, even though I might actually have reasonable chance to get into one of the top three) because their network would be very US biased...

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Marc Geddes's avatar

What I meant to say is that it's plausible that the cognitive drives behind Communal Sharing, Authority Ranking and Equality Matching are what motivated the development of Socialism, Conservatism and Capitalism, respectively.

I agree that there's a lot of mixing in practice, but should there be? People hate corporations that are vey authoritarian etc, see Pinker ('The Stuff of Thought') for discussion suggesting that many social conflicts in everyday life are indeed caused by attempted mixing of the different types of relationship.

I think it's a good bet Futarchy will never work because of the status conflict between Equality Matching (the cognitive basis for prediction markets) and Authority Ranking (the cognitive basis for government arms such as the military).

The link you give to integration of Bayes and analogical inference is a link I myself posted in Open Thread 27, it supports my theory. I postulated that Bayes is a special case of analogical inference (i.e. Analogy is more powerful, but it includes Bayes as a special case). If I'm right, some kinds of analogy making should be found to give the same result as Bayesian inference. And that's exactly what the paper shows.

Nice to see LW folks supporting my view. In the thread 'In Defense Of the Outside View', one poster states:

"This whole debate looks like a red herring to me. The entire distinction makes no sense-- all views are outside views. Our only knowledge of the future comes from knowledge of regularities. So all arguments are arguments from typicality. Some of that knowledge comes from surveys of how long it takes someone to finish a project. Some comes from experimental science. Some of that knowledge comes from repeated personal experience-- say completing lots of projects on time. Some of it is innate, driven into us though generations of evolution. But all of it is outside view. The so-called "inside view" arguments are just a lot harder to express by pointing to a single reference class."

I couldn't have said it better myself. If the addition assumption is made that analogical inference is in fact identical to categorization and the outside view (which seems a very reasonable assumption), then the quoted poster above is in effect saying exactly what I'm saying, Bayes is just a special case of analogy.

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