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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Intrade has both real money (intrade.com) and play money (intrade.net) versions.

As all real-money prediction markets suffer from serious problems (lack of interest, very high fees, dubious legality), I only use their play-money versions as an intellectual exercise.

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

And, finally, I am always skeptical of something that has a very high magnitude of harm and an infinitely small probability of occuring.

Some people try to justify this as well, saying, look at the expected value of loss.

Sort of like Pascals wager: if God exists even with a small probability, then I'd better be good; to which I reply: if there is a big hairy monster out there, and if you eat Tulips on Tuesday, then no harm will befall you from the hairy monster: that is the same argument too, and I do not eat Tulips on Tuesday.

My experience does not include big hairy monsters, but they may exist, and in fact, I have a program you should fund to find out if they do or do not exist.

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