2 Comments
User's avatar
Jack's avatar

I wonder: on our current trajectory how long will it take for population decline to move up on this list? I.e., for the average person to perceive it as a serious risk?

It isn't implausible to me that the answer could be "never", if the change over one lifetime remains modest. How does a gradual change ever compete with the near-to-hand risks that dominate the top of your list: Death, rights violations, crime, etc.

Also you have the overhang of people like me who fondly remember when there was less crowding and everything was easier: Buying a house, getting into a good college, getting a campsite at a national park. Maybe it will take some of us dying off to start taking the problem seriously.

Expand full comment
Robin Hanson's avatar

Yes, many empires, like Rome and France, have declined due to fertility decline, without their peoples ever being sufficiently motivated to change that.

Expand full comment