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SciCast Pays HUGE

Robin Hanson

Nov 5, 2014

I’ve posted twice before when SciCast paid out big. The first time we just paid for activity. The second time, we paid for accuracy, but weakly, as it was measured only a few weeks after each trade. Now we are paying HUGE, for longer-term accuracy. We’ll pay out $86,000 to the most accurate participants, as measured from November 7 to March 6:

SciCast is running a new special! The most accurate forecasters during the special will receive Amazon gift cards:

• The top 15 participants will win $2250 to spend at Amazon.com

• The other 135 of the top 150 participants will win $225 to spend at Amazon.com

Participants will be ranked according to their total expected and realized points from their forecasts during the special. Be sure to use SciCast from November 7 through March 6! (more)

Added: At any one time about half the questions will be eligible for this contest. We of course hope to compare accuracy between eligible and ineligible questions.