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gwern's avatar

Update: the check route worked, and I'm trading now.

Like others, I am discouraged from the small-probability markets by how much margin Intrade requires. What's the point of forcing the North Korea strike down some percents if I have to lock up my full $200 to do so?

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

The probability of the Higgs boson discovery is much lower - the last traded contract corresponds to a 15% chance. www.bet-on-the-higgs.com explains how to bet and offers US$ 100 monthly to those who believe in the Higgs discovery.

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