Discover more from Overcoming Bias
This is a blog on why we believe and do what we do, why we pretend otherwise, how we might do better, and what our descendants might do, if they don't all die.
Over 11,000 subscribers
Continue reading
Chances of some future events, from Intrade.com:
70-71% Republicans win US House in 11/2010
42-47% California legalizes marijuana in 11/2010
6-16% California credit default by 2011
10-20% US overt strike on N. Korea by 4/2011
24% US or Israel overt strike on Iran by 2012
10-19% US Sup. Court bans med. mandate by 2012
16-18% Palin is Republican nominee in 2012
11-30% Japan says it has nuke by 2013
45-48% US Cap & Trade system by 2013
12-14% China war act on Taiwan by 2013
15-38% Higgs Boson seen by 2014
If you think any of the above in error, please do go get paid to correct the error.
Sample Odds
Update: the check route worked, and I'm trading now.
Like others, I am discouraged from the small-probability markets by how much margin Intrade requires. What's the point of forcing the North Korea strike down some percents if I have to lock up my full $200 to do so?
The probability of the Higgs boson discovery is much lower - the last traded contract corresponds to a 15% chance. www.bet-on-the-higgs.com explains how to bet and offers US$ 100 monthly to those who believe in the Higgs discovery.