Sample Odds
Chances of some future events, from Intrade.com:
70-71% Republicans win US House in 11/2010
42-47% California legalizes marijuana in 11/2010
6-16% California credit default by 2011
10-20% US overt strike on N. Korea by 4/2011
24% US or Israel overt strike on Iran by 2012
10-19% US Sup. Court bans med. mandate by 2012
16-18% Palin is Republican nominee in 2012
11-30% Japan says it has nuke by 2013
45-48% US Cap & Trade system by 2013
12-14% China war act on Taiwan by 2013
15-38% Higgs Boson seen by 2014
If you think any of the above in error, please do go get paid to correct the error.
Update: the check route worked, and I'm trading now.
Like others, I am discouraged from the small-probability markets by how much margin Intrade requires. What's the point of forcing the North Korea strike down some percents if I have to lock up my full $200 to do so?
The probability of the Higgs boson discovery is much lower - the last traded contract corresponds to a 15% chance. www.bet-on-the-higgs.com explains how to bet and offers US$ 100 monthly to those who believe in the Higgs discovery.