Overcoming Bias

Share this post

Profiling Fails

www.overcomingbias.com

Discover more from Overcoming Bias

This is a blog on why we believe and do what we do, why we pretend otherwise, how we might do better, and what our descendants might do, if they don't all die.
Over 11,000 subscribers
Continue reading
Sign in

Profiling Fails

Robin Hanson
Sep 6, 2010
Share this post

Profiling Fails

www.overcomingbias.com
7
Share

As anyone who watches television detective programmes will know, criminal profiling claims to predict the characteristics of an offender from an analysis of a crime’s circumstances. Most police forces in the developed world use profiling, … Several studies … comparing the predictions of profilers and non-profilers in mock crime situations where the characteristics of the “real” perpetrator are known. Drawing together the results of four of these studies in a meta-analysis published in 2007, Snook’s team found that the profilers did only slightly better than students without any experience of profiling, and that the predictive abilities of both were very low (Criminal Justice and Behavior, vol 34, p 437). (more)

Share this post

Profiling Fails

www.overcomingbias.com
7
Share
7 Comments
Share this discussion

Profiling Fails

www.overcomingbias.com
Overcoming Bias Commenter
May 15

Let's say you can choose between a 10% chance of death and an 11% chance of death. That's only a small margin, so you don't mind if I select one at random, right?

Of course not; a difference is still a difference.

Expand full comment
Reply
Share
Overcoming Bias Commenter
May 15

I think that the point is, if profilers only outperform students by a small margin, why bother having profilers?

Expand full comment
Reply
Share
5 more comments...
Top
New
Community

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Robin Hanson
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing