Prediction markets continue to offer great potential to improve society at many levels. Their greatest promise lies in helping organizations to better aggregate info to enable better key decisions. However, while such markets have consistently performed well in terms of cost, accuracy, ease of use, and user satisfaction, they have also tended to be politically disruptive – they often say things that embarrass powerful people, who get them killed. It is like putting a smart autist in the C-suite, someone who has lots of valuable info but is oblivious to the firm’s political landscape. Such an executive just wouldn’t last long, no matter how much they knew.
Well, Robin was indeed correct about this, as the price of bitcoin temporarily spiked in late 2017 to be followed by sell-offs and market doldrums through June 2018, at about half the late 2017 market value:
Why predict a blockchain price crash soon? At least if by that you mean a fall in the value of bitcoin relative to the US dollar?I remain curious about two of your points, @TruePath:disqus !
First, was Robin referring to a crash in the popularity of blockchain usage, in a general sense? Or instead, was he specifically referring to a crash in value of bitcoin relative to the US dollar and most (all) fiat currencies?
Second, what insights prompted Robin to predict a blockchain price crash soon, whether bitcoin in particular, or blockchain popularity as a possible approach to innovation or improved solutions to existing challenges?
Typo in this sentence: "It is like putting a smart autist in the C-suite, someone who with lots of valuable info but oblivious to the firm’s political landscape."
Suggested change: "...who has lots of valuable info but is oblivious..."
There is a cool project called Bitcoin Hivemind (http://bitcoinhivemind.com/) that would function as a prediction market platform, allowing for conditional bets, although not really in the way you suggest. It solves the "oracle" problem where we need a decentralized way to determine what actually occurred to settle any bets. Right now, the project would be implemented as a Bitcoin drivechain (a type of sidechain).
Why predict a blockchain price crash soon? At least if by that you mean a fall in the value of bitcoin relative to the US dollar?
Indeed, isn't the one cryptocurrency prediction market that is large, liquid and has sophisticated traders the market predicting future bitcoin value? Or are you suggesting that the current valuation is reasonable in expectation but the majority of the probability is on a decrease in value with a small chance of a huge gain?
More generally, illegal drugs are a huge business and advances in crypto allow anonymous cryptocurrency transactions making it very difficult for the government to actually shut down cryptocurrencies without accidentally outlawing mainstream financial transactions (what would the law bar? ). I admit there is a danger that future SEC/tax changes will make it more difficult for cryptocurrencies to be used in an investment capacity but I don't see any reason to believe this isn't already factored into the price.
Is there enough flexibility in any of these blockchain-based setups to implement a proper prediction market with conditional bets? Blockchains have a long memory, they tend to already be tied to currency, and they're not going to be knocked out by some nation's anti-gambling laws. That seems like a good start. What else needs implementing? What's the best way to deal with an input stream of facts that are necessary to settle bets? Could some sort of Wiki offshoot crowdsource this? It might be easier on sports bets, but I want to bet on things like "If a legit institutional team tries to replicate study X, the replication will succeed."
Predictious is a bicoin betting market, where it can make sense to bet at times other than the first or last possible moment. But they charge high fees, comparable to an ordinary bookie. https://predictious.desk.co...
The FAQ says there are weights, but doesn't explain what they are. If early bets get a strong enough weight, then the incentive is to bet as soon as possible. It is very unlikely that the actual weight makes it ideal to bet at any time other than the early or latest possible moments.
I have never heard that word and defer to your knowledge, I will read more about parimutuels.
But, I will point out that BitBet has a penalty for betting later; there is a discount factor over time applied to your possible winnings, not sure if it matters
also that discount factor irks me it seems arbitrary but at the same time i understand the need: wondering if there is a relatively objective standard for such discount rates
There's a fundamental question of bitcoin maximalism versus the alternative of many coins for many purposes. I wonder if Robin will weigh in from a market design POV.
Why Augur over good ol' BTC denominated bitbet? a seperate coin seems a barrier to entry.
I'm having a hard time figuring out the firm-specific use case for an SME. For a large business, say Oracle, it makes sense.
many businesses can leverage the current PredictIt flavored questions as market research
What is the main issue with implementation? I totally don't know but I think increasing participation has been hard in the case of bitbet, maybe for other reasons
and I'm interested in the possibility that margin traded prediction market derivatives can substitute for lottery tickets at 7 eleven. Sounds like a joke but it's not. Turn the stupid tax into a learning incentive
Well, Robin was indeed correct about this, as the price of bitcoin temporarily spiked in late 2017 to be followed by sell-offs and market doldrums through June 2018, at about half the late 2017 market value:
Why predict a blockchain price crash soon? At least if by that you mean a fall in the value of bitcoin relative to the US dollar?I remain curious about two of your points, @TruePath:disqus !
First, was Robin referring to a crash in the popularity of blockchain usage, in a general sense? Or instead, was he specifically referring to a crash in value of bitcoin relative to the US dollar and most (all) fiat currencies?
Second, what insights prompted Robin to predict a blockchain price crash soon, whether bitcoin in particular, or blockchain popularity as a possible approach to innovation or improved solutions to existing challenges?
I would highly appreciate your opinion about possibility to create and function prediction market for B2B cargo transport?
Typo in this sentence: "It is like putting a smart autist in the C-suite, someone who with lots of valuable info but oblivious to the firm’s political landscape."
Suggested change: "...who has lots of valuable info but is oblivious..."
Best, Kate
Why no mention of Hivemind?http://bitcoinhivemind.com/
Thanks for mentioning this one. Hivemind is probably the only one with significant peer review, that will avoid an Ethereum DAO sort of incident.
There is a cool project called Bitcoin Hivemind (http://bitcoinhivemind.com/) that would function as a prediction market platform, allowing for conditional bets, although not really in the way you suggest. It solves the "oracle" problem where we need a decentralized way to determine what actually occurred to settle any bets. Right now, the project would be implemented as a Bitcoin drivechain (a type of sidechain).
Why predict a blockchain price crash soon? At least if by that you mean a fall in the value of bitcoin relative to the US dollar?
Indeed, isn't the one cryptocurrency prediction market that is large, liquid and has sophisticated traders the market predicting future bitcoin value? Or are you suggesting that the current valuation is reasonable in expectation but the majority of the probability is on a decrease in value with a small chance of a huge gain?
More generally, illegal drugs are a huge business and advances in crypto allow anonymous cryptocurrency transactions making it very difficult for the government to actually shut down cryptocurrencies without accidentally outlawing mainstream financial transactions (what would the law bar? ). I admit there is a danger that future SEC/tax changes will make it more difficult for cryptocurrencies to be used in an investment capacity but I don't see any reason to believe this isn't already factored into the price.
Is there enough flexibility in any of these blockchain-based setups to implement a proper prediction market with conditional bets? Blockchains have a long memory, they tend to already be tied to currency, and they're not going to be knocked out by some nation's anti-gambling laws. That seems like a good start. What else needs implementing? What's the best way to deal with an input stream of facts that are necessary to settle bets? Could some sort of Wiki offshoot crowdsource this? It might be easier on sports bets, but I want to bet on things like "If a legit institutional team tries to replicate study X, the replication will succeed."
Predictious is a bicoin betting market, where it can make sense to bet at times other than the first or last possible moment. But they charge high fees, comparable to an ordinary bookie. https://predictious.desk.co...
The FAQ says there are weights, but doesn't explain what they are. If early bets get a strong enough weight, then the incentive is to bet as soon as possible. It is very unlikely that the actual weight makes it ideal to bet at any time other than the early or latest possible moments.
I have never heard that word and defer to your knowledge, I will read more about parimutuels.
But, I will point out that BitBet has a penalty for betting later; there is a discount factor over time applied to your possible winnings, not sure if it matters
also that discount factor irks me it seems arbitrary but at the same time i understand the need: wondering if there is a relatively objective standard for such discount rates
BitBet is not a betting market but is instead a parimutuel, where your incentive is to bet at the last possible moment before bets are closed.
There's a fundamental question of bitcoin maximalism versus the alternative of many coins for many purposes. I wonder if Robin will weigh in from a market design POV.
Why Augur over good ol' BTC denominated bitbet? a seperate coin seems a barrier to entry.
I'm having a hard time figuring out the firm-specific use case for an SME. For a large business, say Oracle, it makes sense.
many businesses can leverage the current PredictIt flavored questions as market research
What is the main issue with implementation? I totally don't know but I think increasing participation has been hard in the case of bitbet, maybe for other reasons
and I'm interested in the possibility that margin traded prediction market derivatives can substitute for lottery tickets at 7 eleven. Sounds like a joke but it's not. Turn the stupid tax into a learning incentive