You talk a lot about Forager-Farmer-Industrial norms, etc.
To what degree have you looked into Pastoralist cultures, and to what degree do you think they have a different set of social rules than the other groups you routinely mention?
So in the close conditional election markets, that would be "Obama wins by < X% popular vote, and unemployment rises" plus "Romney ..."?
Given a set of prices on those, how would you go about interpreting the market view of causality, as distinct from the market view as to who is more likely to win given a close election? As your definition of close gets tighter, this is less of an issue, but it also pushes your prices toward zero, and the opposing position price toward 1, which is problematic because of long-shot bias, poor effective interest rate, and lack of investor interest in highly unlikely outcomes (elections just don't get within 0.1%, for instance).
A bet between two people that gets called off if the condition isn't met is a lot cleaner, and what I found Robin advocating in blog posts, but I'm not sure how to convert that into a market.
You talk a lot about Forager-Farmer-Industrial norms, etc.
To what degree have you looked into Pastoralist cultures, and to what degree do you think they have a different set of social rules than the other groups you routinely mention?
So in the close conditional election markets, that would be "Obama wins by < X% popular vote, and unemployment rises" plus "Romney ..."?
Given a set of prices on those, how would you go about interpreting the market view of causality, as distinct from the market view as to who is more likely to win given a close election? As your definition of close gets tighter, this is less of an issue, but it also pushes your prices toward zero, and the opposing position price toward 1, which is problematic because of long-shot bias, poor effective interest rate, and lack of investor interest in highly unlikely outcomes (elections just don't get within 0.1%, for instance).
A bet between two people that gets called off if the condition isn't met is a lot cleaner, and what I found Robin advocating in blog posts, but I'm not sure how to convert that into a market.