This is our monthly place to discuss relevant topics that have not appeared in recent posts. Any requests for future posts? Seconds, etc. of such requests?
Not only do we need bias to feel good (or bad), but feeling good (or bad) is a large part of our existence and decision making. The extent to which bias even can be overcome is another question, seeing as it is hard-wired into us (e.g. my nervous system is not your nervous system).
Why has Overcoming Bias been loading so slowly lately? It takes much longer than most other pages I read, and it's been consistently slow for a couple of weeks now. I think that "sitemeter" thing might have something to do with it, because that's what shows up at the bottom of my browser most of the time while I wait for this site to load.
Friedman suggests a private currency could be based on a bundle of commodities. For example, a bank would issue notes that they could exchange into "a ton of steel of a specified grade, 100 bushels of wheat, an ounce of gold, and a number of other items." With enough goods in the bundle, this would prevent production of the goods simply because of their value as currency.
Also, I remember reading somewhere that the 19th century gold rushes would occur when the world economy grew relative to its money supply. When there was enough gold back in the system, the search for gold would slow. Hence, private gold diggers would help (far from perfectly) keep price levels stable.
"I lean strongly in the direction of a warm bed and peace as opposed to a glass full of tinkling ice cubes and a room resonating with high-decibel blather. I suppose the parties wouldn’t be so bad if there was something original to be said, or if “you” had a genuine interest in “me” as opposed to “you,” but let’s face it folks, no one does. The only reason any of us really cares about cocktail conversations is to quickly redirect someone else’s stories into autobiographies that we assume to be instant bestsellers if only in print. If not, if the doe-eyed listener seems simply fascinated by what you’re saying, you can bet there’s a requested personal favor coming when you finally shut up. “Say Bill, I was wondering if you knew somebody at…that could…” Yeah right! But, as my chart shows, 90 seconds into a typical conversation, no one gives a damn about you and your problems – maybe those shoes and that dreadful eye shadow you’re wearing, but not anything audible coming out of your mouth."
(Maybe this has been addressed in previous posts.)
"Is there an optimal level of bias?" Too much bias can lead too often to the wrong decisions. But we need some bias to feel better about ourselves, about other people and about the world. In other words, biases may be linked to happiness. Another way of putting this question is "Is the optimal level of bias at zero?"
Of course strict monogamy and one-man-multiple-exclusive-women are not the only ways that sexuality might develop in the future, so please don't represent them as the only choices.
Too much theory on LW/OB, not enough practical application. Anyone play the Betfair sports prediction markets? For probability theory, I can tell you there is no better eduction than gambling with your own money on real prediction makets and taking repeated beatings until you've learnt your lessons :D
Huge liquidity on Betfair horse racing markets, a typical UK horse race has between 1,000,000 - 2,000,000 pounds - that's one to two million pounds per race - in matched bets wagered, and there are usually more than 30 races per day in the UK alone.
The Betfair commission is only 2-5% (95-98% average return) so you only need to do slightly better than average in your chosen area to compensate for the commission and at least break even. Top traders in horse racing markets are making over 1000 pounds per day for only a few hours work. Check out the blog of this well-known trader:
Adam Heathcote
I've been playing the horse racing markets for a couple of years - took some horrendous beatings initially but think I've gradually (through a painful learning process) trying to claw my way to an edge (my target edge is about 7%).
Robin, in 2005 you wrote a paper saying that "we do not know why we now live so much longer," referring to the increase in average human life span. http://hanson.gmu.edu/feard.... That provokes two questions:
1) Has your thinking or the consensus thought on the matter changed in the past 4.5 years?
2) Should not having an answer to this question decrease our confidence in the techs that we are using to answer it?
good news for Many Worlds?"Scientists supersize quantum mechanics"http://www.nature.com/news/...
Not only do we need bias to feel good (or bad), but feeling good (or bad) is a large part of our existence and decision making. The extent to which bias even can be overcome is another question, seeing as it is hard-wired into us (e.g. my nervous system is not your nervous system).
I think Robin should comment on this from Will Ambrosini.
Yes ,on browser that has XP,but not the one with Windows 7.Same browsing comments.
Why has Overcoming Bias been loading so slowly lately? It takes much longer than most other pages I read, and it's been consistently slow for a couple of weeks now. I think that "sitemeter" thing might have something to do with it, because that's what shows up at the bottom of my browser most of the time while I wait for this site to load.
Has anyone else been having this problem?
Quick question for Robin Hanson:
Would you be in favor of truth-in-advertising laws? I find I can imagine Hansonian arguments both for and against.
Kahneman @ Ted: http://www.ted.com/talks/da...
I'd just like to share a link to a post by Scott Adams that might get a smile from Robin and his readers:Crazy or Disciplined
I read your comment and was reminded of this article by David Friedman. http://www.cato.org/pubs/pa...
Friedman suggests a private currency could be based on a bundle of commodities. For example, a bank would issue notes that they could exchange into "a ton of steel of a specified grade, 100 bushels of wheat, an ounce of gold, and a number of other items." With enough goods in the bundle, this would prevent production of the goods simply because of their value as currency.
Also, I remember reading somewhere that the 19th century gold rushes would occur when the world economy grew relative to its money supply. When there was enough gold back in the system, the search for gold would slow. Hence, private gold diggers would help (far from perfectly) keep price levels stable.
How about this?
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNa...
"I lean strongly in the direction of a warm bed and peace as opposed to a glass full of tinkling ice cubes and a room resonating with high-decibel blather. I suppose the parties wouldn’t be so bad if there was something original to be said, or if “you” had a genuine interest in “me” as opposed to “you,” but let’s face it folks, no one does. The only reason any of us really cares about cocktail conversations is to quickly redirect someone else’s stories into autobiographies that we assume to be instant bestsellers if only in print. If not, if the doe-eyed listener seems simply fascinated by what you’re saying, you can bet there’s a requested personal favor coming when you finally shut up. “Say Bill, I was wondering if you knew somebody at…that could…” Yeah right! But, as my chart shows, 90 seconds into a typical conversation, no one gives a damn about you and your problems – maybe those shoes and that dreadful eye shadow you’re wearing, but not anything audible coming out of your mouth."
Fair enough, Violet. Heinlein proposed a number of I believe novel arrangements like line marriages.
These two just appear to be the choices with the most evolutionary forces pushing towards them.
If we wanted to venture out a bit further, we could also explore how gender might change, become obsolete, multiply.
(Maybe this has been addressed in previous posts.)
"Is there an optimal level of bias?" Too much bias can lead too often to the wrong decisions. But we need some bias to feel better about ourselves, about other people and about the world. In other words, biases may be linked to happiness. Another way of putting this question is "Is the optimal level of bias at zero?"
Without a number there is a fuzzy sense of who is attractive and how much weight different people have.
With a number there is a total ordering.
The fuzzy way promotes more cooperation and less infighting.
Of course strict monogamy and one-man-multiple-exclusive-women are not the only ways that sexuality might develop in the future, so please don't represent them as the only choices.
Too much theory on LW/OB, not enough practical application. Anyone play the Betfair sports prediction markets? For probability theory, I can tell you there is no better eduction than gambling with your own money on real prediction makets and taking repeated beatings until you've learnt your lessons :D
Huge liquidity on Betfair horse racing markets, a typical UK horse race has between 1,000,000 - 2,000,000 pounds - that's one to two million pounds per race - in matched bets wagered, and there are usually more than 30 races per day in the UK alone.
The Betfair commission is only 2-5% (95-98% average return) so you only need to do slightly better than average in your chosen area to compensate for the commission and at least break even. Top traders in horse racing markets are making over 1000 pounds per day for only a few hours work. Check out the blog of this well-known trader:
Adam Heathcote
I've been playing the horse racing markets for a couple of years - took some horrendous beatings initially but think I've gradually (through a painful learning process) trying to claw my way to an edge (my target edge is about 7%).
Robin, in 2005 you wrote a paper saying that "we do not know why we now live so much longer," referring to the increase in average human life span. http://hanson.gmu.edu/feard.... That provokes two questions:
1) Has your thinking or the consensus thought on the matter changed in the past 4.5 years?
2) Should not having an answer to this question decrease our confidence in the techs that we are using to answer it?