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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Unnamed and Eliezer both make good points. "Why even bother" isn't even that good of a question, since imitating successful countries is more likely than the government starting such a market. Maybe not for good reasons, but Frankel can't be blamed for that.

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

I think you're coming on too strong in the final paragraph. Frankel could easily reply thusly: "Empirically, they did it in Chile, and it worked. I'm just recommending what has been observed to work - your arguments that prediction markets should work and should resist manipulation are interesting, but you cannot criticize me for recommending an empirically tested, actually-working solution over a theoretical one." Even I tend to be sympathetic to that sort of argument when it is an actually-observed-adequate solution that is being defended, rather than, as usual, inaction or an inadequate solution.

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