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RobinHanson's avatar

A handful of people who actually know things is plenty of traders. If you start out an LMSR with an initial best guess price, and then one person trades to move it to a more informed price, that's a win. How many traders to allow is a tradeoff between accuracy and privacy.

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skbdpup's avatar

Aren't there too few participants in hiring decisions to make markets meaningful? In my experience only a handful of people (2-5) discuss final hiring decisions. What's the smallest size a decision market can have and still be useful? Or are you suggesting that these markets be open to any willing bettors?

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