Overcoming Bias

Share this post

My Surprises

www.overcomingbias.com

Discover more from Overcoming Bias

This is a blog on why we believe and do what we do, why we pretend otherwise, how we might do better, and what our descendants might do, if they don't all die.
Over 14,000 subscribers
Continue reading
Sign in

My Surprises

Robin Hanson
Mar 11, 2011
Share this post

My Surprises

www.overcomingbias.com
53
Share

I am surprised that:

  1. I exist at all; the vast majority of possible things do not exist.

  2. I am alive; the vast majority of real things are dead.

  3. I have a brain; the vast majority of living things have none.

  4. I am a mammal; the vast majority of brains aren’t.

  5. I am a human; the vast majority of mammals aren’t.

  6. I am richer than the vast majority who have ever lived.

  7. I am alive earlier than the vast majority of human-like folks who will ever live.

  8. I am richer and smarter than most humans alive today.

  9. I write a popular blog, and unusually interesting articles.

Now how bothered should I be by these surprises? The bigger is some particular surprise, the more eager I should be to seek alternative theories, under which that surprise would be smaller.  But what alternative accounts could weaken these surprises?

One hypothesis that does the trick is the simulation argument – the idea that I’m really part of a simulation created in the distant future to explore their past world.  It lessens the surprise of #5-9, and maybe also #2-4 as well. Does this mean I should take the simulation argument a bit more seriously than I otherwise would?

Added 9a:  I find anything unusually interesting to be “surprising.” Sometimes that is of course just an accident, but the more surprising something is, the more one should seek alternate explanations.  If you can’t find them, you’ll just have to go back to considering them an accident.

Yes the fact that I am cognitively able to actually be surprised predicts other things, and given that fact those other things are no longer surprising.  But the fact that I am able to be surprised is itself surprising!

Share this post

My Surprises

www.overcomingbias.com
53
Share
53 Comments
Share this discussion

My Surprises

www.overcomingbias.com
Overcoming Bias Commenter
May 15

I don't understand what it means to be surprised that 'you' are not not a mammal.

Expand full comment
Reply
Share
Overcoming Bias Commenter
May 15

snarles, I think fatalism is the most rational reaction, but the most rational agents don't always persist in the context of incomplete information.

For example, the scenario of "I am PROBABLY an exact simulation of a human from the past".

Expand full comment
Reply
Share
51 more comments...
Top
New
Community

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Robin Hanson
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing