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RobinHanson's avatar

That is plausible, though that's close to a consequential argument that your bad hoping will induce bad actions, which is the usual "sabotage" concern.

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Agnes Callard's avatar

Have been thinking about the criticism you received for this and I wonder whether the following argument might be at the back of peoples' heads when they think about such bets:

(1) If you bet money that p will occur, you create an incentive to hope that p will occur.(2) If p is bad, you will be hoping for a bad thing.(3) Hoping for bad things to happen makes you a bad person.

Therefore, you should not bet that bad things will occur, because you should not create incentives for yourself to become bad.

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